New Jersey Devils

What the Quant Says

264 goals, 14th in the league, on the 10th-best rate of chance creation at even strength — 2.689 expected goals per 60. Two seasons ago this club created at 3.345 per 60, first in hockey by a distance. It has fallen ten places and half a goal a game.

At five-on-five New Jersey took 51.9 per cent of the shot attempts, 7th, and 50.7 per cent of the expected goals, 16th. The gap between those two says what changed: the volume is still there and the quality is not.

And it scored 177 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 173.2 — a surplus of 3.8, 14th in the league. Slightly above average at finishing, so the attack is very close to what it deserved.

Jesper Bratt had 27 goals and 56 assists for 83 points in all 82 games, and his ice went 70-55 against an expectation of 61.05-46.83 — nine goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and eight more conceded than they called for. Jack Hughes had 74 points in 62 games after 99 in 78 the season before, and Nico Hischier had 27 goals and 67 points in 71.

Three forwards produced 224 points between them and every one of them is 26 or younger.

What the Scout Says

Three genuinely good young forwards and a lot of thirteen-minute wingers.

Jack Hughes took 274 shots at a median of 26 feet and converted 9.9 per cent, against a career 10.96. He is 5-11 and 175 and the fastest player on the roster; the whole of his game is speed through the neutral zone with the puck. Sixty-two games is the second time in three full seasons he has missed twenty.

Jesper Bratt is 5-10 and 175 with 230 career assists in 471 games and took 248 shots at a median of 25 feet. Nico Hischier took 182 shots at a median of 17 feet with 56 per cent of them from inside twenty — a first-overall centre who scores from the paint and kills penalties, with 6 career shorthanded goals.

Timo Meier is 6-1 and 220 with 191 goals in 541 games and shot 207 times. Dawson Mercer took 134 shots at a median of 19 feet and converted 14.9 per cent at 22. Stefan Noesen arrives having taken the 97th percentile of chances in Carolina, on ice that went 41-21.

What the Quant Says

New Jersey allowed 2.626 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 21st in the league, down from 7th two seasons ago. It conceded 283 goals, 27th.

The distance between those two numbers is the crease, and the club has spent a summer on both halves.

Luke Hughes played all 82 games at 21:28 a night at 20 and had 9 goals and 38 assists for 47 points. His ice went 51-53 against an expectation of 63.30-58.57 — twelve goals of scoring that never arrived, the largest shortfall on the club, and six fewer conceded than the chances called for. The minus-25 is almost entirely special teams and empty nets; at five-on-five his ice was minus-2.

Simon Nemec played 60 games at 19:52 at 19, second overall in 2022, with his ice at 49-47 against 46.73-43.87. Jonas Siegenthaler took 19:20 in 57 games. Dougie Hamilton played 20 games and had 16 points in them, and did not play again.

The three defencemen whose ice the goaltending cost most — John Marino at seventeen goals, Kevin Bahl and Brendan Smith at sixteen each — have all left. In their place: Brett Pesce, who took the 88th percentile of chances in Carolina, Brenden Dillon, who was plus-20 in Winnipeg with 858 career penalty minutes, and Johnathan Kovacevic, 6-5 and 223, who was plus-11 in Montreal.

What the Scout Says

Two twenty-year-olds, a rebuilt right side, and 858 career penalty minutes arriving from Winnipeg.

Luke Hughes is 6-2 and 198 and skates like his brothers. 47 points in a first full season at 20, and a shot chart of 4 per cent from inside twenty — he is a puck-carrier and a distributor and not remotely a shooter. The defending is where the work is and 21:28 a night at 20 is how it gets done.

Simon Nemec is 6-1 and 190, right-handed, and second overall in 2022. Nineteen points in 60 games at 19 with a chance share above even is a good first season.

Brett Pesce is 6-3 and 206 and has 627 games of shutdown minutes at a career 21:05 a night. Brenden Dillon is 6-4 and 225, undrafted, with 892 games and 858 penalty minutes and will fight anybody. Johnathan Kovacevic is 6-5 and 223. Dougie Hamilton is 6-6 and 230 with 461 career points and played twenty of them.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 16.6 goals worse than the chances it faced, 26th in the league. Two seasons ago it was 5.5 goals better, 11th. That is a twenty-two-goal swing in one year.

New Jersey used five goaltenders. Vitek Vanecek took 32 games, Nico Daws 21, Akira Schmid 19, Jake Allen 13 after arriving from Montreal, and Kaapo Kahkonen 6. Three of the five have gone.

Nico Daws went 9-11-0 with an .8944 and a 3.15 in 21 games, facing 568 shots, against a career .8937 across 46. Jake Allen finished 12-18-4 with an .8951 and a 3.44 across 34 games in two cities, facing 1,087, against a career .9075 across 429.

Jacob Markstrom arrives from Calgary having gone 23-23-2 with a .9050 and a 2.78 in 48 games, facing 1,379. He is 34, has 485 games, 215 wins and 20 shutouts, and a career .9089. The season before last he went .8923 in 59 games, so the .9050 is a recovery rather than a peak.

A club that used five goaltenders and finished 26th at it has bought one 34-year-old. That is the plan.

What the Scout Says

Five goaltenders, minus sixteen goals, and one 34-year-old Swede bought to end it.

Jacob Markstrom is 6-6 and 207 and plays a deep, positional game, using size where a smaller goaltender would have to move. Twenty career shutouts in 485 games and a career .9089. He went .9050 in 48 games in Calgary after an .8923 the year before, which is the shape of a 34-year-old who is either steady or finished.

Jake Allen is 6-2 and 197 and challenges higher in his crease. A career .9075 across 429 games and an .8951 last season across two cities. He is 34 as well.

Nico Daws is 6-4 and 205 and 23, a third-round pick with 46 career games at an .8937. He is the organisation's own answer and he is not ready.

Two thirty-four-year-olds and a prospect, in front of a blue line rebuilt in the same summer. If the goaltending simply returns to average this club gains about sixteen goals, which is a large part of the ten points between eighty-one and a playoff place.

What the Quant Says

17th in the league at 6.701 expected goals per 60, over 5:17 a night, the sixteenth-most power-play time in hockey. Above-average volume, below-average rate, and a fall from 10th two seasons ago.

Timo Meier scored 10 power-play goals and has 52 in 541 career games. Jack Hughes scored 9 in 62 games, Jesper Bratt 7 and Nico Hischier 6. Dougie Hamilton scored 4 in twenty games before his season ended, which is the point about him.

The unit has the personnel and lost its quarterback after twenty games. Hamilton has 42 career power-play goals from the point in 771 games and there is nobody here who replaces that.

What the Scout Says

Seventeenth by rate on the tenth-most time, with the quarterback missing from November.

Dougie Hamilton has 42 career power-play goals from the point in 771 games and scored 4 in his twenty games. Nobody else here shoots from the blue line and nobody else here runs a unit.

Timo Meier's 10 came from the left circle at 6-1 and 220. Jack Hughes's 9 in 62 games is the highest rate on the club. Jesper Bratt's 7 and Nico Hischier's 6 came from the half-wall and the net front.

The personnel is a first unit that should be top-ten. It was seventeenth because the man who makes it work played twenty games.

What the Quant Says

17th in the league at 6.910 expected goals against per 60, over 4:53 a night, the twenty-first-most shorthanded time in hockey. Low volume, middling rate — the one part of this club that did not collapse.

Two seasons ago the kill was 6th. Falling from 6th to 17th while spending about the same time shorthanded is not a personnel problem; it is the same sixteen goals of goaltending showing up in a second place.

Erik Haula has 8 career shorthanded goals in 690 games and Ondrej Palat 7 in 748, and both of them killed. Brett Pesce arrives with 627 games of it and Brenden Dillon with 892. On paper this is now a better penalty-killing group than the one that finished 17th.

What the Scout Says

Seventeenth by rate on the twenty-first-most time, which is the least broken thing here.

Erik Haula is 5-11 and 191 with 8 career shorthanded goals in 690 games and Ondrej Palat has 7 in 748 — both of them are genuinely good at this and both are 33. Curtis Lazar has 524 games of fourth- line and penalty-kill work and Nathan Bastian is 6-4 and 217.

Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon now take the defensive pair, replacing Marino and Bahl. Pesce has killed for nine seasons in Carolina, whose penalty kill was first in the league last season. That is the single clearest upgrade the club made all summer.