Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

63

Jesper Bratt

New Jersey Devils Left Wing

A hundred and sixty-second overall in 2016, 230 assists in 471 games, and eighty-three points at 5-10.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18NJD74132235-161841210013.015:15
2018-19NJD5182533-86101918.815:10
2019-20NJD60161632-6610210115.813:59
2020-21NJD4672330+482011016.916:05
2021-22NJD7626477301630619713.217:26
2022-23NJD82324173+14680321215.117:22
2023-24NJD82275683-61270724810.919:18
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—471129230359-187226122105012.316:35

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

All 82 games, 27 goals and 56 assists for 83 points, 7 on the power play, 12 penalty minutes, 19:18 a night and minus-6. He took 56.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,148 minutes, the 93rd percentile, and his ice went 70-55 against an expectation of 61.05-46.83.

Nine goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and eight more conceded than they called for. Eighty-three points is the best total on the club and the 93rd percentile is the best chance share of anybody who played for it last season.

The Finesse Game

248 shots at a median of 25 feet with 40 per cent from inside 20, converted at 10.9 per cent against a career 12.29.

230 career assists in 471 games. He is a passer before he is anything else and the release is quick enough that defenders have to respect both. He carries the puck into the zone rather than dumping it, which on a line with Jack Hughes means two men who will not give it up.

The Physical Game

He is 5-10 and 175 and plays no physical game at all.

12 penalty minutes in 82 games is one of the lowest rates in the league. He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and is easily moved off a puck.

The Intangibles

A sixth-round pick in 2016 out of Stockholm, seven seasons, and 359 points in 471 games, all of it for one organisation.

He is 26 and has gone 73, 73 and 83 points in three seasons. A 162nd-overall pick who became the best forward on a club that had two first-overall picks in its top six.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    6 of his 27 goals late or in overtime, 95th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.15 penalty minutes a game over 82, 8th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    56.6% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 48.0% for his club in the minutes he sat: +8.6, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He is a passer before he is anything else and the release is quick enough that defenders have to respect both.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He carries the puck into the zone rather than dumping it, which on a line with Jack Hughes means two men who will not give it up.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and is easily moved off a puck.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and is easily moved off a puck.”

  • hard-to-movehe lacks it· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and is easily moved off a puck.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,148 minutes

Expected goals
56.6%
93rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.8%
94th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 70 for, 55 against. Expected: 61.0 and 46.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
76th
Numbers
93rd

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 82 games

Top speed
23.1 mph
91st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
2.68 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.20 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.0 mph
39th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1148 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NJD took 50.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.6% — 5.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,148 minutes at five-on-five — 78th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nico Hischier57.1%55.9%46.7%
Luke Hughes59.0%55.3%48.7%
John Marino55.1%57.4%46.4%

57.1% together, 55.9% for him apart and 46.7% for Hischier apart. Hischier was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Hischier than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

349 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 27 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 40% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.