New Jersey Devils

What the Quant Says

242 goals and 15th in creating chances at even strength at 2.50 expected goals per 60, which is a modest figure for a roster with this much skill and reflects how much of it was unavailable.

Jesper Bratt had 67 assists — the most on the club by 24 — and 88 points. Jack Hughes produced 70 points in 62 games before shoulder surgery ended his season in March. Nico Hischier scored 35 on an 18.7 per cent rate with 52 per cent of his shots taken from inside 20 feet. Timo Meier took 239 shots and scored 26.

Finishing was 23rd, 8.8 goals below expectation, and Meier carried most of it: on-ice goals of 45-30 against an expected 53.6-45.3, which is 16 goals that did not arrive. Stefan Noesen took 64 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet at a median of 13 — the most extreme interior profile in this edition.

What the Scout Says

Two playmakers, a complete centre, a volume shooter, and a specialist who lives in the blue paint.

Bratt's passing is the best on the roster and among the best in the league — patient, deceptive, and delivered through traffic. Jack Hughes creates at speed and delivers into space rather than onto a stick, and 229 shots in 62 games is an enormous volume. Hischier does not shoot from distance and does not need to; the release in tight is quick and the hands work in traffic, and he does all of it while taking the hard matchup.

Timo Meier is the strongest winger here on a puck — he wins the wall against defencemen and is very difficult to knock off possession — and he creates nothing for other people. Stefan Noesen's entire game is arriving at the net front before the defenceman and being ready, and at 32 he is among the best in the league at that specific job.

Underneath, the club is honest and limited. Dawson Mercer has played every game of his career and takes 52 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet. Ondrej Palat's hockey sense is intact and the skating has gone. Cody Glass tilts the ice and cannot finish — 6 goals on 91 shots. Paul Cotter hits everything and had 6 assists in 79 games. Connor Brown and Luke Glendening were bought for the kill.

What the Quant Says

222 goals against and 11th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.39 per 60, with a 10th-ranked shot-attempt share.

Johnathan Kovacevic — claimed off waivers by Montreal and traded here for a fourth-round pick — posted the best chance share on the blue line at 52.9 per cent across 1,319 minutes. Brett Pesce took the hardest assignment at 21:19 and was at 52.3. Jonas Siegenthaler was at 52.6 in 55 games.

Luke Hughes had 44 points at 21 in 21 minutes a night, and Dougie Hamilton 40 in 64 games with 186 shots. The blue line is genuinely deep and none of the three defensive men played a full season.

Simon Nemec, the 2nd overall pick in 2022, posted a 39 per cent chance share in 27 games — the 1st percentile in the league — and did not take a single shot from inside 20 feet.

What the Scout Says

Deeper than its reputation, and the three men who defend cannot stay on the ice.

Brett Pesce defends with position and an active stick rather than force, boxes out in front, and produces nothing — 3 goals and 14 assists at 21 minutes a night is exactly the job. Jonas Siegenthaler clears his crease and blocks shots and has had three consecutive interrupted seasons. Johnathan Kovacevic is 6-5 and 223 and the most physically imposing man on the roster, at the cost of 72 penalty minutes.

Luke Hughes skates the way his brother does — long, effortless, genuinely fast — and creates by arriving with the puck rather than by delivering it, which is what 37 assists at 21 means. He does not clear a crease and the defensive reads are a year behind the offensive ones. Dougie Hamilton's point shot is among the best in the league and he is 6-6 and does not use any of it physically.

Brenden Dillon took 48 shots in 82 games, the lowest volume of any full-time defenceman in this edition, and is among the more feared men in the league to meet in a corner. Simon Nemec is 21 and the decisions come apart under a real forecheck.

What the Quant Says

Jacob Markström went 26-16-6 with a .9003 across 49 games and Jake Allen .906 in 31. The club's goaltending came in 8.4 goals better than the chances faced, 13th in the league.

Both goaltenders are 35. Both posted essentially the same save percentage. Allen had 4 shutouts in 31 games to Markström's 4 in 49. The club traded a first-round pick and a prospect for the worse of them at 34, to be the goaltender who wins a first round, and that has not happened.

This is the least resolved thing on an otherwise well-constructed roster.

What the Scout Says

Two 35-year-olds with the same numbers, and a first-round pick spent on one of them.

Jacob Markström is 6-6 and plays large and positional — taking away the top of the net, square more often than not, tracking well through traffic. The lateral recovery is where the age shows: a puck moved across the slot finds him late and the second save in a sequence is slower than it was, with rebound control that is adequate rather than good. Fifteen seasons of one excellent year followed by two ordinary ones, and no record of a collapse.

Jake Allen is 6-2 and compact and technical — square, economical, never travelling further than the puck requires — with genuinely good puck-handling on a club that breaks out cleanly. He does not cover a net by standing in it, so a scramble is more dangerous against him, and he plays well cold, which is the actual skill in a backup and the one most never acquire. 4 shutouts in 31 games.

What the Quant Says

1st in the league at 8.89 expected goals per 60, over 4:29 a night. The best unit in hockey and it is not close — the club in 2nd is at 8.18.

Nico Hischier scored 14 power-play goals and Stefan Noesen 11, with Meier 7, Hughes 6, Mercer 6. The construction is the reason: Bratt and Jack Hughes distributing from the half-wall, Hamilton's 186 shots from the point, Hischier in the inside lane, and Noesen in the paint at a median shot distance of 13 feet.

It produced this rate with Hughes playing 62 games and Hamilton 64. Evgenii Dadonov was signed to strengthen a second unit that barely needs one.

What the Scout Says

The best unit in the league, and it is a genuine five-man construction rather than one shooter.

Jesper Bratt and Jack Hughes both distribute from the half-wall, which means a killing box cannot cheat toward either — and both hold the puck a beat longer than a killer's discipline allows. Dougie Hamilton's release from the point is heavy and quick and it has to be respected the moment the puck reaches him, which is what opens the seam.

Nico Hischier works the inside lane and scored 14 there. Stefan Noesen occupies the blue paint at a median shot distance of 13 feet and scored 11, which is the least replaceable job on the unit and the one most clubs cannot staff.

It finished 1st in the league at 8.89 expected goals per 60 — 0.66 clear of 2nd — with Hughes playing 62 games and Hamilton 64. That is the most impressive fact in this chapter.

What the Quant Says

7th at 6.49 expected goals against per 60, over 4:50 a game — the 7th-heaviest workload in the league.

Pesce, Siegenthaler and Kovacevic take the defensive minutes and all three are genuinely good at it. Connor Brown was signed with 10 penalty minutes in 82 games on his record and Luke Glendening with 10 in 77 — two of the more disciplined killing forwards available, replacing Erik Haula and Curtis Lazar.

The cost is elsewhere: Kovacevic took 72 penalty minutes, Brenden Dillon 67, Paul Cotter 62, Timo Meier 58, and Stefan Noesen 54. A unit this good can absorb it and it is why the workload is 7th-heaviest.

What the Scout Says

Very good, heavily used, and quietly well recruited.

Brett Pesce is the anchor: he takes away the middle, does not chase, and blocks shots without theatre. Jonas Siegenthaler clears the crease and Johnathan Kovacevic's reach ends plays a smaller defenceman would have to pursue. Nico Hischier takes the hardest draws in the league without complaint and Dawson Mercer supplies the pace.

The summer's two signings are precisely aimed. Connor Brown took 10 penalty minutes in 82 games and Luke Glendening 10 in 77, and Glendening is among the two or three best defensive-zone faceoff centres alive. A unit that is 7th while taking the 7th-heaviest workload has been given the men to be better.