This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Stefan Noesen
New Jersey Devils Right Wing
The 97th percentile of chances in Carolina, on ice that went 41-21, at a median of fifteen feet.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 6:54 |
| 2015-16 | ANA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 10:02 |
| 2016-17 | ANA/NJD | 44 | 8 | 2 | 10 | +6 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 12.7 | 11:07 |
| 2017-18 | NJD | 72 | 13 | 14 | 27 | +12 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 127 | 10.2 | 13:17 |
| 2018-19 | NJD | 41 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -19 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 4.7 | 12:44 |
| 2019-20 | PIT/SJS | 40 | 7 | 2 | 9 | -1 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 67 | 10.4 | 11:32 |
| 2020-21 | SJS/TOR | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0 | 9:37 |
| 2021-22 | CAR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 14:20 |
| 2022-23 | CAR | 78 | 13 | 23 | 36 | +11 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 134 | 9.7 | 12:20 |
| 2023-24 | CAR | 81 | 14 | 23 | 37 | +13 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 111 | 12.6 | 11:52 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 366 | 58 | 69 | 127 | +23 | 187 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 575 | 10.1 | 12:10 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
81 games in Carolina, 14 goals and 23 assists for 37 points, 3 on the power play, 33 penalty minutes, 11:52 a night and plus-13. He took 59.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 850 minutes, the 97th percentile, and his ice went 41-21 against an expectation of 41.42-28.57, all of it with the Hurricanes.
Level with the chances at one end and eight fewer conceded than they called for at the other. A 97th-percentile chance share at under twelve minutes a night is a Carolina number as much as a Noesen number, and both halves of that matter.
The Finesse Game
111 shots at a median of 15 feet with 61 per cent from inside 20, converted at 12.6 per cent against a career 10.09.
69 career assists in 366 games. He shoots from closer in than almost anybody in this chapter and he gets there by standing in the paint until somebody moves him. There is no carrying and no distance shot at all.
The Physical Game
He is 6-1 and 205 and goes to the front of the net and stays there.
187 career penalty minutes in 366 games is a moderate rate. He forechecks aggressively, wins the wall, and takes a beating in the blue paint without retaliating for it.
The Intangibles
Twenty-first overall in 2011 by Ottawa, out of Plano, Texas, ten seasons across six organisations, and 127 points in 366 games, two of them for New Jersey already. He played two NHL games in 2021-22 and seventy-eight the year after.
He is 31 and has just had the best season of his career on the club with the first-ranked penalty kill and the second-best chance share in hockey. New Jersey is buying the number and will find out how much of it was Carolina.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 850 minutes
- Expected goals
- 59.2%
- 97th pct
- Shot attempts
- 60.7%
- 99th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 41 for, 21 against. Expected: 41.4 and 28.6.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 22 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 379 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2023-24 with CAR · 850 minutes at five-on-five
- Jack Drury48%
- Martin Necas26%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- CAR took 56.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.2% — 2.6 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- Third line, 850 minutes at five-on-five — 43rd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Drury | 63.9% | 55.2% | 51.5% |
| Dmitry Orlov | 59.9% | 58.7% | 56.7% |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 58.5% | 59.6% | 56.2% |
63.9% together, 55.2% for him apart and 51.5% for Drury apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
184 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 8 feet. 63% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 14% from beyond forty.