Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

10

Alexander Holtz

Vegas Golden Knights Right Wing

Seventh overall in 2020, and 16 goals in all 82 games at 22.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22NJD9022-52000120.012:16
2022-23NJD19314-682002114.310:16
2023-24NJD82161228-151410312213.111:38
2024-25 so far
Career110191534-262430315512.311:27

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

82 games with New Jersey, 16 goals and 12 assists for 28 points, 1 on the power play, 14 penalty minutes, 11:38 a night and minus-15, with 3 game-winners. He took 45.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 862 minutes, the 23rd percentile, and his ice went 32-36 against an expectation of 30.96-37.19.

A goal of finishing above what the chances were worth and a goal of goaltending above them. Sixteen goals in eleven and a half minutes a night is a real rate on a chance share that was the fourth-lowest of anybody on this roster.

The Finesse Game

178 attempts at a median of 31 feet with 26 per cent of them from inside twenty and 28 per cent from beyond forty, 120 of those on goal, converted at 13.1 per cent against a career 12.26 across 155 shots.

Nineteen career goals and 15 assists in 110 games. The shot is why he was the seventh pick in his draft — a one-timer he does not need time to set — and a thirty-one-foot median attempt says he is happy to take it from the circle rather than the crease.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 198 and took 14 penalty minutes.

Twenty-four career penalty minutes in 110 games. He is an ordinary size and plays no forechecking game at all; the puck has to arrive on his stick, and three seasons of a club waiting for that to change is why he is here.

The Intangibles

Seventh overall in 2020 by New Jersey, three seasons, and Vegas will be his second organisation.

A career minus-26 in 110 games. He is 22, he played all 82 games in his first full season and scored 16 goals doing it, and he has already been traded once.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 862 minutes

Expected goals
45.4%
24th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.5%
41st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 32 for, 36 against. Expected: 31.0 and 37.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
62nd
Numbers
24th

The report ranks him 38 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with NJD · 862 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NJD took 50.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.4% — 5.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 862 minutes at five-on-five — 44th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Luke Hughes47.4%44.2%53.1%
Simon Nemec45.9%45.2%53.1%
Erik Haula52.5%42.1%52.6%

47.4% together, 44.2% for him apart and 53.1% for Hughes apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Hughes and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

178 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 16 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 26% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 28% from beyond forty.