Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

43

Luke Hughes

New Jersey Devils Defense

Forty-seven points and 21:28 a night at 20, and twelve goals of scoring that never arrived on his ice.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2022-23NJD211200001250.016:14
2023-24NJD8293847-25284011356.721:28
2024-25 so far
Career84103949-25284021377.321:21

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

All 82 games, 9 goals and 38 assists for 47 points, 4 on the power play, 28 penalty minutes, 21:28 a night and minus-25. He took 51.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,391 minutes, the 67th percentile, and his ice went 51-53 against an expectation of 63.30-58.57.

Twelve goals of scoring that never arrived — the largest shortfall on the club — and six fewer conceded than the chances called for. At five-on-five his ice was minus-2; the minus-25 is special teams and empty nets, and it is the single most misleading number in this chapter.

The Finesse Game

135 shots at a median of 47 feet, with 4 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 and 66 per cent from beyond 40, converted at 6.7 per cent.

38 assists in 82 games. He is not a shooter and the chart says so; the whole of the offence is carrying the puck out of his own end and finding a forward in stride. Four per cent of his attempts from inside twenty is the lowest figure of any defenceman in this chapter.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 198 and defends with feet and stick, and he is moved off pucks by men who are stronger.

28 penalty minutes in 82 games at twenty-one and a half a night is a very low rate for a 20-year-old on this workload. He does not clear the crease and he does not win many walls, and both of those are the reason for the minus-25 as much as the goaltending was.

The Intangibles

Fourth overall in 2021 out of Manchester, New Hampshire, two years at Michigan, two seasons, and 49 points in 84 games. His brother Jack is the first-line centre and his brother Quinn is in Vancouver.

He is 21 and played every game of a first full season at 21:28 a night. Forty-seven points is the most any defenceman aged twenty or under produced in this edition, and the defending will take three more years.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,391 minutes

Expected goals
51.9%
67th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.5%
87th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 51 for, 53 against. Expected: 63.3 and 58.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
76th
Numbers
67th

The two rank him within 9 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 415 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1391 minutes at five-on-five

  • John Marinonow UTA29%
  • Colin Millernow WPG21%
  • Brendan Smithnow DAL17%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NJD took 50.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.9% — 1.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 1,391 minutes at five-on-five — 93rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jack Hughes55.1%50.4%51.6%
Jesper Bratt59.0%48.7%55.3%
Dawson Mercer47.6%53.5%48.6%

55.1% together, 50.4% for him apart and 51.6% for Hughes apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

197 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 34 feet. 4% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 66% from beyond forty.