Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

91

Dawson Mercer

New Jersey Devils Center

Twenty goals and thirteen assists at 22, and a shot median of nineteen feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22NJD82172542-252821215411.016:32
2022-23NJD82272956+221421616116.816:34
2023-24NJD82201333-262940213414.917:13
2024-25 so far
Career2466467131-2971821044914.216:46

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

All 82 games, 20 goals and 13 assists for 33 points, 4 on the power play, 29 penalty minutes, 17:13 a night and minus-26. He took 48.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,139 minutes, the 39th percentile, and his ice went 39-55 against an expectation of 45.64-48.98.

Seven goals of scoring that did not arrive and six more conceded than the chances called for. A minus-26 out of a 39th-percentile chance share is both halves going wrong at once, and only one of them was his.

The Finesse Game

134 shots at a median of 19 feet with 54 per cent from inside 20, converted at 14.9 per cent against a career 14.25.

67 career assists in 246 games. Thirteen assists in eighty-two games is a very low number for a top-nine forward and it is the thing to fix — he shoots from close in, converts well, and does almost nothing else with the puck.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 180 and gets to the interior without holding it long.

29 penalty minutes in 82 games is a low rate. He forechecks hard, blocks shots, and kills penalties with 2 career shorthanded goals.

The Intangibles

Eighteenth overall in 2020 out of Carbonear, three seasons, and 131 points in 246 games, all of it for one organisation. He has played all 82 games in each of his three seasons.

He is 22 and has 64 goals in 246 games. Twenty-seven goals and fifty-six points two seasons ago is the version the club is waiting to see again.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,139 minutes

Expected goals
48.2%
40th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.3%
50th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 39 for, 55 against. Expected: 45.6 and 49.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
62nd
Numbers
40th

The report ranks him 22 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 415 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1139 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NJD took 50.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.2% — 2.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,139 minutes at five-on-five — 77th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Timo Meier47.2%48.8%50.0%
Luke Hughes47.6%48.6%53.5%
Kevin Bahl48.9%47.9%51.4%

47.2% together, 48.8% for him apart and 50.0% for Meier apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

179 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 20 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 54% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.