New Jersey Devils

What the Quant Says

The single most extreme page in this edition. New Jersey scored 230 goals while taking 51.7 per cent of the 5-on-5 shot attempts, 9th in the league — and finished 37.9 goals below expectation, dead last of 32. The nearest club to them is 15 goals closer.

It is not 1 man. Jesper Bratt posted the 92nd percentile in chance share and had 60.7 expected goals for while he was on the ice against 38 actual ones. Jack Hughes put up 77 points in 61 games at the 85th percentile and was on for 29 goals against an expectation of 51. Nico Hischier — 48 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet, a Selke case nobody makes — 40 against 59.7 expected. Timo Meier took 269 shots for 24 goals. Arseny Gritsyuk was 95th percentile in attempts as a rookie and on for 25 goals for against 44. Anthony Mantha arrives having scored 33 and gone plus-10 on a club that was minus-36.

A whole roster shooting this far under its chances, all at once, is the clearest regression candidate in the book — in the club's favour.

What the Scout Says

2 of the most gifted small forwards in the league and a supporting cast that mostly works from the perimeter. Jack Hughes has the best skating in this edition and the passing is its equal; he used to defer and no longer does. Jesper Bratt has become one of the better playmaking wingers in hockey from a 162nd overall, and the edges are the tell. Nico Hischier has the best shot selection of the top 6, and takes every hard defensive shift while producing at a first-line rate.

The weight comes from 2 men. Timo Meier is a volume shooter with a heavy release who goes to the net front and wins the ice there; Anthony Mantha is 6-5 and unmovable in the same place, which is worth a great deal on a power play. Beyond them the club has a shape problem it keeps re-acquiring: Evan Rodrigues does not go to the net front and does not win pucks by force; Arseny Gritsyuk is skilled and quick and needs open ice; Connor Brown has not been the same skater since a serious knee injury and works from further out because of it. Stefan Noesen is the exception — a man who stands 13 feet from the goaltender with ordinary hands, which on this roster is not the worst idea available. Cody Glass got to the paint and finished there all season, which is the opposite of the playmaking centre the 6th overall pick assumed.

What the Quant Says

15th in even-strength expected goals against, and the same story told from the other end. Dougie Hamilton posted the 70th percentile and had the goals go 45-53 against him. Luke Hughes played 23:01 a night at 22 and was on for 39 goals against 54. Brett Pesce, in 37 games, was on the ice for 13 goals against an expected 28.7 — the 1 man here whose luck ran the other way.

Jonas Siegenthaler played 1,439 minutes of the hard stuff and has 10 goals in 449 career games. Brenden Dillon at 35 took 89 penalty minutes and shoots from a median of 58 feet. This is a competent, heavy, well-organised blue line whose results were destroyed by what happened at both ends of the ice around it.

What the Scout Says

Big, unglamorous and built entirely around defending. Jonas Siegenthaler makes the short pass and gets off the ice, blocks shots, kills, and closes gaps without lunging. Brett Pesce's first pass is clean and quick and that is the whole of his offensive contribution — he owns his crease and does not run out of position to do it. Brenden Dillon supplies 89 penalty minutes, a genuine appetite for fighting and a cleared front of the net, and the skating went years ago. Johnathan Kovacevic gets his stick on a great many pucks in front and is beaten wide by genuine speed.

The 2 exceptions are what make the group interesting. Dougie Hamilton has the best shot of any defenceman in this edition and gets it through traffic and on net, which is why it keeps producing from where he takes it. Luke Hughes skates the way his brother does — long, effortless, quick enough to make a mistake recoverable — leaves the zone with the puck as routine and joins the attack as a fourth man; he does not clear his crease and loses net-front battles to heavy wingers, which is the ordinary cost at his age. This is a club that has correctly identified what its forwards cannot do and bought the men who can.

What the Quant Says

Not blameless. New Jersey's goaltending came in 10.0 goals worse than the chances faced, 23rd — a real deficit, and small change next to the 38 the shooters left behind.

Jacob Markstrom took 44 games and is a Panther. Jake Allen played 37, and David Rittich arrives with a .8944 across 30 — the better half of a tandem that cost its club 14 goals. Nico Daws has 3 appearances. This is the position with the least settled answer on a roster that otherwise looks like a playoff team, and the one place where a modest upgrade compounds fastest.

What the Scout Says

A tandem that holds the position rather than solving it. Jake Allen is square, economical, and the rebounds mostly go where he intends; the athleticism has faded and he compensates by being early, which has been enough for a long time against clubs that concede an ordinary number of chances. 400-odd games, several as the starter on teams that were not good, and a long stretch in Montreal that would have soured most people and apparently did not sour him.

David Rittich is quick, occasionally scrambly, and has never had positional discipline as the strong part of his game; the rebound control is ordinary. Undrafted, 10 seasons in, a backup at 6 organisations without any suggestion he minds, and reliable in the specific sense the role requires — he does not lose games the club should win. On a roster where everything else is in place, that is the position that will not decide a series in New Jersey's favour.

What the Quant Says

4th in the league at 8.15 expected goals per 60 — and 30th in time to use it, at 4:26 a night.

Hischier led it with 11 power-play goals, Meier 6, Bratt 5, Hamilton 4. A top-5 unit that barely gets on the ice is the same shape as everything else here: the process is excellent and the output is being taxed by something outside it. Drawing more penalties is not a skill a club can simply decide to acquire, but it is worth several goals a season to this one.

What the Scout Says

A properly shaped unit with 2 distinct kinds of danger. Dougie Hamilton runs it from the point with the best shot any defenceman in this edition has, and he gets it through traffic rather than into shin pads. Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt are the 2 men who can manufacture a seam that was not there — Hughes because a killer cannot close on him without the gap moving, Bratt because he turns inside pressure and keeps the puck.

The close work is what makes it more than a set of skilled passers. Anthony Mantha cannot be moved off the net front and that is now most of what he offers; Timo Meier wins the same ice with more menace; Stefan Noesen stands where the rebounds land. Nick Bjugstad is 6-6 and screens. Nico Hischier's shot selection means the puck goes to the right place when it reaches him. There is no obvious missing part here, which makes it the phase of the roster least in need of explanation.

What the Quant Says

13th at 7.05 expected goals against per 60, over 4:29 a game — 27th, one of the most disciplined clubs in the league.

Dawson Mercer's 3 shorthanded goals lead a kill built on Hischier, Siegenthaler and Dillon. It is a top-half unit that rarely has to work, and along with the fifth-best power play it means New Jersey's special teams are genuinely good. Everything about this club is good except the number on the scoreboard, and that is the most encouraging sentence anyone can write about a team that missed.

What the Scout Says

Well staffed at both ends of it. Nico Hischier wins faceoffs, kills, and is the man sent out to protect a lead; Connor Brown forechecks properly and kills and has always been valued for details rather than presence; Nick Bjugstad takes defensive-zone draws; Jesper Boqvist is quick enough through the neutral zone to be a threat when a puck comes loose.

The blue line is the strength. Jonas Siegenthaler kills without lunging; Brett Pesce blocks shots and holds the front of the net; Brenden Dillon and Johnathan Kovacevic between them make the crease a genuinely unpleasant place, which is the one thing most modern kills cannot buy. Declan Chisholm retrieves and exits cleanly, which keeps the clears honest. The cost is Dillon's own: 89 penalty minutes is the most on the club, and the appetite that makes him valuable is also what puts his team down a man. On a roster containing Hughes, Hughes and Bratt, that is a trade the club has decided it is willing to make.