Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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71

Jonas Siegenthaler

New Jersey Devils Defense

Eight goals in 312 games, a career plus-23, and the one defenceman here the goaltending did not cost.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19WSH26044+610000120.014:09
2019-20WSH64279+1143001494.115:44
2020-21WSH/NJD15000-9400070.015:37
2021-22NJD7011314-542000921.120:34
2022-23NJD8041721+2744101844.820:09
2023-24NJD57189-720000631.619:20
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—31284957+231631023072.618:28

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

57 games, 1 goal and 8 assists for 9 points, 20 penalty minutes, 19:20 a night and minus-7. He took 48.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 972 minutes, the 41st percentile, and his ice went 31-41 against an expectation of 38.93-41.57.

Eight goals of scoring that did not arrive and one fewer conceded than the chances called for. On a club that lost sixteen goals to its goaltending, his own ice came out of it level, and the minus-7 is entirely the end he does not work at.

The Finesse Game

63 shots at a median of 47 feet with 70 per cent from beyond 40, converted at 1.6 per cent.

49 career assists in 312 games and eight career goals. There is no offence at all and there never has been; a 1.6 per cent conversion rate is what a defensive defenceman putting pucks at the net from the blue line looks like. He moves it simply and quickly and does not carry.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 218 and defends with reach and body position, closing lanes rather than chasing men.

163 career penalty minutes in 312 games at eighteen and a half a night is a very low rate. He blocks shots, clears the crease, and kills penalties, and he does it without taking anybody’s head off.

The Intangibles

A second-round pick in 2015 out of Zurich, six seasons across two organisations, and 57 points in 312 games at a career plus-23.

He is 27 and has been a shutdown defenceman for six years without producing a single number anybody would quote. On a club that has spent a summer rebuilding the blue line, he is the one man on it nobody was trying to replace.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He is 6-2 and 218 and defends with reach and body position, closing lanes rather than chasing men.”

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “He blocks shots, clears the crease, and kills penalties, and he does it without taking anybody's head off.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He blocks shots, clears the crease, and kills penalties, and he does it without taking anybody's head off.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He blocks shots, clears the crease, and kills penalties, and he does it without taking anybody's head off.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “There is no offence at all and there never has been; a 1.6 per cent conversion rate is what a defensive defenceman putting pucks at the net from the blue line looks like.”

  • transitionhe lacks it· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He moves it simply and quickly and does not carry.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 972 minutes

Expected goals
48.4%
41st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52%
72nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 31 for, 41 against. Expected: 38.9 and 41.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
31st
Numbers
41st

The two rank him within 10 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 57 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
83rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.51 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.69 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.5 mph
38th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 972 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NJD took 50.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.4% — 2.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 972 minutes at five-on-five — 54th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Simon Nemec45.2%50.3%54.8%
Jesper Bratt51.2%47.1%58.2%
Dougie Hamilton55.8%45.3%56.0%

45.2% together, 50.3% for him apart and 54.8% for Nemec apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

82 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 50 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 70% from beyond forty.