Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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7

Dougie Hamilton

New Jersey Devils Defense

Four hundred and sixty-one points in 771 games, and twenty of them last season before it ended.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13BOS4251116+414200836.017:08
2013-14BOS6471825+22402011146.119:06
2014-15BOS72103242-3415021885.321:20
2015-16CGY82123143-14465031906.319:46
2016-17CGY81133750+12642052225.919:41
2017-18CGY82172744+1646042706.321:32
2018-19CAR821821390542022597.019:40
2019-20CAR47142640+30322031708.223:17
2020-21CAR55103242+20352121805.622:43
2021-22NJD6292130-19342011974.621:13
2022-23NJD82225274+23508072758.021:46
2023-24NJD2051116-820400618.220:59
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—771142319461+684944213022096.420:40

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

20 games, 5 goals and 11 assists for 16 points, 4 on the power play, 20 penalty minutes, 20:59 a night and minus-8. He took 55.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 352 minutes, the 91st percentile, and his ice went 15-18 against an expectation of 18.33-14.50.

Three goals of scoring that did not arrive and four more conceded than the chances called for, in twenty games. Sixteen points in twenty games is a point-a-game pace from a defenceman and he did not play again.

The Finesse Game

61 shots at a median of 47 feet with 71 per cent from beyond 40, converted at 8.2 per cent against a career 6.43.

319 career assists in 771 games and 142 goals. The shot from the right point is one of the heaviest in the league and 42 career power-play goals is what it produces. He walks the line, holds it, and shoots through traffic rather than around it.

The Physical Game

He is 6-6 and 230 and defends with reach rather than with contact.

494 career penalty minutes in 771 games is a moderate rate. He does not clear a crease at that size and never has, and the defensive half of his game has been the argument against him for a decade.

The Intangibles

Ninth overall in 2011 out of Toronto, twelve seasons across four organisations, and 461 points in 771 games at a career plus-68.

He is 31 and played twenty games. The club’s power play fell from sixteenth to seventeenth in the same season, and there is no other explanation on the roster.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range

    3 of 61 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 4.9%, 95th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    55.8% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 50.2% for his club in the minutes he sat: +5.6, 96th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He walks the line, holds it, and shoots through traffic rather than around it.”

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He is 6-6 and 230 and defends with reach rather than with contact.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He does not clear a crease at that size and never has, and the defensive half of his game has been the argument against him for a decade.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is 6-6 and 230 and defends with reach rather than with contact.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 352 minutes

Expected goals
55.8%
91st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
59.5%
98th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 15 for, 18 against. Expected: 18.3 and 14.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
80th
Numbers
91st

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 20 games

Top speed
21.2 mph
30th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.25 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.18 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.2 mph
73rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 352 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NJD took 50.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.8% — 5.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
352 minutes at five-on-five — 9th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jonas Siegenthaler55.8%56.0%45.3%
Jesper Bratt55.8%55.8%56.7%
Tyler Toffoli55.1%56.2%52.2%

55.8% together, 56.0% for him apart and 45.3% for Siegenthaler apart. Siegenthaler was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Siegenthaler than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

86 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 43 feet. 3% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 71% from beyond forty.