New Jersey Devils

What the Quant Says

291 goals, 4th in the league.

New Jersey created 3.186 expected goals per 60 at even strength — the best rate in the league — and took 54.1 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 4th, and 56.1 per cent of the expected goals, 2nd.

At five-on-five it scored 197 goals against an expectation of 204.0 — a shortfall of 7.0, 25th in the league. First in the league at making chances and twenty-fifth at converting them.

Jack Hughes had 43 goals and 99 points in 78 games on 336 shots, with 6 penalty minutes. Nico Hischier had 31 and 80 with a plus-33, Dougie Hamilton 22 goals and 74 points from the blue line in all 82 games, Jesper Bratt 32 and 73, Timo Meier 40 goals in 78 games between San Jose and New Jersey and Dawson Mercer 27 and 56 at 21.

Tyler Toffoli arrives from Calgary with 34 goals and 73 points — one of thirty-two forwards in the league who beat the positional conversion rate from all three distances.

What the Scout Says

Ninety-nine points and six penalty minutes from a 175-pound centre, and a captain with the better underlying record.

Jack Hughes is 5-11 and 175 and covers 3.54 miles a game, the 98th percentile, at 23.2 mph and 2.4 bursts a night. The 92 in skating and the 90 in playmaking are the highest forward grades in this chapter. He was first overall in 2019 and the three seasons that followed were the reason people asked whether the pick had been wrong.

Nico Hischier is 6-1 and 200 and was first overall in 2017, the captain since 2021, with 381 games and no other organisation. He took harder zone starts than any other forward in this top six and came out with the best chance share on the club that led the league in chances. The 90 in hockey sense and the 88 in compete are the highest forward figures in this chapter.

Jesper Bratt is 5-10 and 175 and was 162nd overall in 2016 — a sixth-round pick with 276 points in 389 games — at 23.4 mph and 2.8 bursts a game, the 96th and 95th percentiles.

Timo Meier is 6-1 and 220 and scored 40 goals on the most tracked shot attempts of any Devil. Dawson Mercer is 21 and took 23 of his 27 goals from inside 20 feet. Tyler Toffoli arrives with 466 career points and Ondrej Palat has a career plus-152.

What the Quant Says

New Jersey allowed 2.470 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 7th in the league, and conceded 226 goals, 9th.

At five-on-five it conceded 154 goals against an expectation of 159.5, and the club's goaltending came in 5.5 goals better than the chances it faced, 11th in the league.

Dougie Hamilton is 6-6 and played all 82 games at 21:46 with 74 points, and took 182 shots on goal from beyond 40 feet — the second-largest total of any defenceman in the league — at nearly twice the rate his position returns. He registered 0.1 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the 2nd percentile.

Jonas Siegenthaler played 80 games at 20:09 and finished plus-27 on four goals. John Marino played 64 at 21:04 with the hardest zone starts of any Devils defenceman. Brendan Smith held the best chance share on the blue line at 56.4 per cent and scored no goals in 60 games.

Colin Miller arrives with a 101.1 mph shot, 40 per cent of his attempts slapped, and 83 long shots on goal. Cal Foote arrives at 6-5 with a 20.2 mph top speed — the second-slowest measured skater in this book — and one burst above twenty miles an hour in fifty games. Ryan Graves has gone to Pittsburgh and Damon Severson to Columbus.

What the Scout Says

Seventy-four points from a six-foot-six defenceman at the second percentile in bursts of speed.

Dougie Hamilton is 6-6 and 230 and had 22 goals and 52 assists in all 82 games. The 88 in his shot grade and the 88 in playmaking are the highest defensive figures in this chapter. He registered 0.1 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game and covers 3.17 miles; a defenceman playing this many minutes at that speed is doing it on reading the play, and reading the play is the last thing to go — but when it does there is nothing underneath it.

Jonas Siegenthaler is 6-2 and 218 and was 57th overall in 2015 to Washington, four seasons of not quite being trusted there, and a twenty-minute defenceman inside a year of the trade. A defenceman with four goals has to defend at this level to hold the job, and the measurements say he does.

John Marino is 6-1 and was 154th overall in 2015 to Edmonton, who never played him a game. He has 14 goals, 68 assists and a plus-44 in 253 games, which for a sixth-round pick who was allowed to walk is an extraordinary return.

Colin Miller arrives with a 101.1 mph shot and 40 per cent of his attempts slapped. Cal Foote arrives at 6-5 and 224 as the second-slowest measured skater in this book. Kevin Bahl is 6-6 and 230 at 23.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 5.5 goals better than the chances it faced, 11th in the league.

Vitek Vanecek went 33-11-4 with a .9107 and a 2.45 in 52 games, facing 1,333 shots with 3 shutouts — 25.6 shots a night, the fifth-lightest workload of any goaltender who played thirty games. His career line across 131 games is a .9089.

Akira Schmid went 9-5-2 with a .9216 and a 2.13 in 18 games at 23 — a save percentage a hundred points above the man ahead of him — facing 408 shots. His career line across 24 games is a .9023.

Mackenzie Blackwood played 22 games and has gone to San Jose.

A club that concedes the seventh-fewest chances in the league does not need a great goaltender and did not have one. What it has is a 27-year-old who won 33 games on a very light workload and a 23-year-old who was better in a third of the sample.

What the Scout Says

Thirty-three wins on the fifth-lightest workload in the league, and a twenty-three-year-old who was a hundred points better.

Vitek Vanecek is 6-2 and 184 and went 33-11-4 with a .9107 in 52 games, facing 25.6 shots a night — the fifth-lightest workload of any goaltender who played thirty games. The career .9089 across 131 games says the season was what he is, and the record says what the club in front of him is.

Akira Schmid is 6-5 and 190 and posted a .9216 in 18 games at 23. He is enormous, positionally quiet and technically clean; the 74 in positioning is the best goaltending figure in this chapter. Twenty-four career games is not enough to know, and it is the most encouraging small sample on the page.

Mackenzie Blackwood has gone to San Jose. New Jersey led the league in chance creation and finished third overall with the eleventh-best goaltending. This is the department the club has not addressed and the one it can most obviously improve.

What the Quant Says

10th in the league at 7.547 expected goals per 60, over 4:35 a night — the third-fewest power-play minutes of any club. A good rate on very little ice.

Timo Meier scored 17 power-play goals, Jack Hughes 9, Dougie Hamilton 8, Jesper Bratt 8, Nico Hischier 7, Dawson Mercer 2, Erik Haula 2, Jonas Siegenthaler 1 and Ondrej Palat 1. Tyler Toffoli scored 10 elsewhere and Colin Miller 1.

Tyler Toffoli arrives with 57 career power-play goals in 733 games, the most on the roster, and Timo Meier has 42 in 472 — the highest rate here. Dougie Hamilton has 38 in 751, Ondrej Palat 31 in 677, Erik Haula 22 in 614, Nico Hischier 20 in 381 and Jack Hughes 20 in 244.

Tenth in the league on the third-fewest power-play minutes in it. New Jersey draws fewer penalties than almost anybody, which on a club that led the league in even-strength chance creation is a symptom rather than a problem.

What the Scout Says

Tenth in the league on the third-fewest power-play minutes, and seventeen goals from one man.

Timo Meier scored 17 power-play goals and has 42 in 472 career games — the highest rate on the roster. He is 6-1 and 220 and works from the left circle and the net front.

Tyler Toffoli arrives with 57 career power-play goals in 733 games, the most on the roster, and scored 10 last season.

Dougie Hamilton has 38 in 751 games and takes the point with a 97.7 mph shot, Jack Hughes scored 9 and Jesper Bratt 8 working the half-walls. Nico Hischier scored 7 and takes the draw.

Colin Miller arrives with a 101.1 mph shot from the right point. Everything this unit needs is on the roster; what it does not get is ice, because New Jersey draws fewer penalties than almost any club in hockey.

What the Quant Says

6th in the league at 6.338 expected goals against per 60, over 4:52 a night — the eleventh-fewest shorthanded minutes of any club.

Nico Hischier scored 3 shorthanded goals, Erik Haula 2 and Dawson Mercer 1. Tomas Nosek scored 2 elsewhere.

Tyler Toffoli arrives with 10 career shorthanded goals in 733 games, the most on the roster, and Ondrej Palat has 7 in 677 and Erik Haula 7 in 614 — every club that has had Haula has used him on the kill. Nico Hischier has 5 in 381 and Tomas Nosek 5 in 398.

Tomas Nosek took 39 attacking-zone starts against 272 in his own end — the most extreme deployment in this book — and Michael McLeod 217 against 392 at the 92nd percentile in bursts of speed.

Sixth in the league on light volume, from a group that starts almost all of its shifts in the wrong end and is fast enough to get out of it.

What the Scout Says

Sixth in the league, and the men who do it start almost every shift in their own end.

Tomas Nosek arrives having taken 39 attacking-zone starts against 272 in his own end — the most extreme deployment in this book — with 5 career shorthanded goals in 398 games.

Erik Haula has 7 career shorthanded goals in 614 games and every club that has had him has used him here; he is in a tenth season and a sixth organisation. Ondrej Palat has 7 in 677 and a career plus-152.

Nico Hischier has 5 career shorthanded goals in 381 games and scored 3. Michael McLeod took 217 attacking-zone starts against 392 at the 92nd percentile in bursts and the 19th in ground covered — short, hard, fast shifts and nothing else.

Brendan Smith has 693 career penalty minutes in 631 games and Cal Foote arrives with 121 in 141. Sixth by rate on light volume, and none of the men who produced it have left.