Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

73

Tyler Toffoli

San Jose Sharks Center

Thirty-three goals and a career plus-87, arriving on a club that scored 181.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13LAK10235+321002010.011:59
2013-14LAK62121729+21101051249.712:56
2014-15LAK76232649+253735320011.514:35
2015-16LAK82312758+352091421314.517:19
2016-17LAK63161834+6224021659.716:35
2017-18LAK82242347+9166062519.616:07
2018-19LAK82132134-16233032265.817:13
2019-20LAK/VAN68242044-12050420311.816:51
2020-21MTL5228164402472515817.717:31
2021-22MTL/CGY74202949-51482119510.316:18
2022-23CGY82343973+1628100426812.716:37
2023-24NJD/WPG79332255-614110422914.416:58
2024-25 so far
Career812260261521+87230681041225211.616:15

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

79 games across New Jersey and Winnipeg, 33 goals and 22 assists for 55 points, 11 on the power play, 14 penalty minutes, 16:58 a night and minus-6, with 4 game-winners. He took 52.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,040 minutes, the 74th percentile, and his ice went 55-51 against an expectation of 50.81-45.85.

Four goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and five more conceded than they called for. Thirty-three goals is more than anybody who played the season in San Jose managed, by nine.

The Finesse Game

321 attempts at a median of 28 feet with 35 per cent of them from inside twenty, 223 of those on goal, converted at 14.4 per cent against a career 11.55 across 2,252 shots.

260 career goals in 812 games, and 68 of them on the power play. The release is the asset — a quick, heavy shot off the catch from the top of the circle that does not need a set-up — and 41 career game-winners is what a finisher looks like counted up over twelve seasons.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 205 and took 14 penalty minutes in 79 games.

230 career penalty minutes in 812 games. There is very little physical contact in his game; he finds the quiet fifteen feet inside the circle and waits there, and twelve seasons of doing that have cost him almost nothing.

The Intangibles

Forty-seventh overall in 2010 by Los Angeles, twelve seasons, and San Jose will be his seventh organisation.

A career plus-87 — the largest positive figure on this roster — and 10 career shorthanded goals. He has scored twenty or more in eight different seasons, and San Jose is the seventh club to try him.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,040 minutes

Expected goals
52.6%
72nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.8%
92nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 55 for, 51 against. Expected: 50.8 and 45.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
76th
Numbers
72nd

The two rank him within 4 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with NJD · 820 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
WPG took 52.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.6% — 0.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
1,040 minutes at five-on-five — 64th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jack Hughes54.2%51.0%52.0%
Luke Hughes54.5%51.7%51.1%
Jesper Bratt56.9%50.8%56.5%

54.2% together, 51.0% for him apart and 52.0% for Hughes apart. He was worse away from Hughes, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Hughes did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

321 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 32 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 35% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.