This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Tyler Toffoli

One of thirty-two forwards in the league who beat the positional rate from all three distances.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2012-13	LAK	10	2	3	5	+3	2	1	0	0	20	10.0	11:59
2013-14	LAK	62	12	17	29	+21	10	1	0	5	124	9.7	12:56
2014-15	LAK	76	23	26	49	+25	37	3	5	3	200	11.5	14:35
2015-16	LAK	82	31	27	58	+35	20	9	1	4	213	14.5	17:19
2016-17	LAK	63	16	18	34	+6	22	4	0	2	165	9.7	16:35
2017-18	LAK	82	24	23	47	+9	16	6	0	6	251	9.6	16:07
2018-19	LAK	82	13	21	34	-16	23	3	0	3	226	5.8	17:13
2019-20	LAK/VAN	68	24	20	44	-1	20	5	0	4	203	11.8	16:51
2020-21	MTL	52	28	16	44	0	24	7	2	5	158	17.7	17:31
2021-22	MTL/CGY	74	20	29	49	-5	14	8	2	1	195	10.3	16:18
2022-23	CGY	82	34	39	73	+16	28	10	0	4	268	12.7	16:37
2023-24 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	733	227	239	466	+93	216	57	10	37	2023	11.2	16:10

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

34 goals and 39 assists in 82 games — 73 points — for Calgary, at 16:37 a night. Plus-16, 268 shots at 12.7 per cent, ten on the power play, four game-winners.

58.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 96th percentile, and 58.7 per cent of the attempts, with his ice at 58-37 against an expectation of 50.97-35.68 — seven goals better than the chances at the attacking end.

He started 56.7 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 80th percentile, 425 attacking draws against 325.

Calgary finished third in the league in chance share, twenty-fourth in finishing and twenty-sixth in goaltending, and missed the playoffs. He was the best forward on it by these measures and New Jersey bought him in the summer.

Eleven seasons, 733 games, 466 points, five organisations.

The Finesse Game

268 shots at a median of 31 feet, and an unusually even spread across the rink.

Inside twenty: 74 shots on goal, 16 goals, 21.62 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71. Twenty to forty: 116 shots, 14 goals, 12.07 per cent, against 11.05. Beyond forty: 70 shots, 4 goals, 5.71 per cent, against 4.16.

Above the league from all three distances. Thirty-two forwards in the league managed that on this kind of volume, and he is one of them. It is the profile of a shooter who is not exceptional anywhere and is above the line everywhere, which is a more durable thing to be at thirty-one than the alternative.

201 wrist shots out of 365 tracked attempts, 42 slap, 27 tip-ins. 96.7 mph at the 87th percentile, on that slap count, so the reading holds.

39 assists is a career high and the passing has always been the quieter half of the file.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 205, with 28 penalty minutes.

Top speed 21.8 mph, the 27th percentile; 0.7 bursts a game, the 41st; 2.57 miles a game, the 48th.

Below the league in speed, at the league in mileage, thirty-one years old. None of what he is worth is in the skating and none of it ever was.

He finds the soft ice and arrives at it a half-second before the puck does, which is a hockey-sense trait rather than a physical one and is the reason the shot volume holds up on a third of the ice time the stars get.

The Intangibles

Forty-seventh overall in 2010, and Los Angeles, Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary and now New Jersey.

227 career goals in 733 games and a career plus-93, at a rate that has barely moved in a decade: he has scored twenty or more in seven of his eleven seasons.

What New Jersey is buying is finishing, on a club that generated the most chances in the league and converted them twenty-fifth-best. That is as close to a diagnosed problem and a matched solution as a summer produces.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

durable· was available
82 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips
“He finds the soft ice and arrives at it a half-second before the puck does, which is a hockey-sense trait rather than a physical one and is the reason the shot volume holds up on a third of the ice time the stars get.”
edgeshe lacks it· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone
“Below the league in speed, at the league in mileage, thirty-one years old.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,021 minutes

Expected goals: 58.8%; 97th pct
Shot attempts: 58.7%; 97th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 58 for, 37 against. Expected: 51.0 and 35.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

70th

Numbers

97th

The numbers rank him 27 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed: 21.8 mph; 37th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 0.74 a game
Distance: 2.57 miles a game
Hardest shot: 96.7 mph; 96th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with CGY · 1021 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club: CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 58.8% — 3.6 above the club he did it on.
The role: Second line, 1,021 minutes at five-on-five — 60th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Elias Lindholm	58.3%	62.0%	36.7%
Dillon Dube	55.8%	60.9%	46.2%
Noah Hanifin	56.1%	60.8%	54.1%

58.3% together, 62.0% for him apart and 36.7% for Lindholm apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Lindholm behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

351 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 34 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 27% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.