Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

92

Tomas Nosek

New Jersey Devils Left Wing

Thirty-nine attacking-zone starts against 272 in his own end — the most extreme deployment in this book.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16DET6000-2200020.010:08
2016-17DET11101-12000195.310:07
2017-18VGK677815+614010927.611:06
2018-19VGK688917-10180111166.912:28
2019-20VGK678715-220011938.611:36
2020-21VGK3881018+7100025913.613:00
2021-22BOS7531417-932001843.613:21
2022-23BOS6671118+9480216910.112:33
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—3984259101-21460565347.912:13

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 11 assists in 66 games — 18 points — for Boston, at 12:33 a night. Plus-9, 69 shots at 10.1 per cent, two shorthanded goals, 48 penalty minutes.

And then the number this report exists for.

He was on the ice for 39 five-on-five faceoffs in the attacking zone and 272 in his own. That is 12.5 per cent, and no skater in this book with three hundred five-on-five minutes started fewer of his shifts in the attacking end. The next man down the list is four points behind him.

46.1 per cent of the expected goals across 657 minutes, the 28th percentile, which given where every shift began is a considerably better result than it looks.

His ice finished 20-14 against an expectation of 22.2-25.94 — twelve goals better than the chances at the defensive end, and that is Linus Ullmark, who posted the best save percentage in the league.

Eight seasons, 398 games, 101 points.

The Finesse Game

69 shots at a median of 23 feet, 44 per cent of them from inside twenty.

Inside twenty: 29 shots on goal and 4 goals, 13.79 per cent. Twenty to forty: 24 shots, 2 goals. Beyond forty: 15 shots, 1 goal.

Seven goals on 69 shots is a fair return for the volume and there is no argument to make in either direction about it.

59 wrist shots out of 92 tracked attempts and two slap shots. 81.0 mph at the 3rd percentile, which on two slap shots is a measurement of what he picks rather than of what he has.

Eleven assists. He is not the man the play goes through and never has been; what he is asked to do is get the puck to the red line.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 199, with 48 penalty minutes.

Top speed 22.2 mph, the 44th percentile; 0.8 bursts a game, the 44th; 1.93 miles a game, the 13th. League-average speed on very low mileage — twelve minutes a night, all of it in short bursts out of his own end.

He kills penalties, takes the draw at the wrong end of the rink, and wins pucks along the wall against men who are bigger.

The two shorthanded goals in sixty-six games are the small dividend of the role, and the role is the entire file.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, out of Pardubice, and 398 NHL games later.

Vegas signed him for the expansion season and he has been a fourth-line centre or left wing ever since, through 42 goals and a career that has never once been about scoring.

And here is the thing worth carrying out of this chapter. Boston won sixty-five games last season, the most in the history of the league, and three of the five most defensively deployed forwards in this book played on it: Nosek at 12.5 per cent, Garnet Hathaway at 17.9 and Nick Foligno at 20.2. All three are on other clubs now. Whatever that fourth line was worth, its own organisation did not pay to keep it, and New Jersey got the most extreme of the three.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    13% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 0th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, out of Pardubice, and 398 NHL games later.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He kills penalties, takes the draw at the wrong end of the rink, and wins pucks along the wall against men who are bigger.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “The two shorthanded goals in sixty-six games are the small dividend of the role, and the role is the entire file.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 657 minutes

Expected goals
46.1%
28th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.9%
17th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 20 for, 14 against. Expected: 22.2 and 25.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
29th
Numbers
28th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 66 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
51st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.80 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.93 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
81.0 mph
21st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with BOS · 657 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
BOS took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.1% — 7.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 657 minutes at five-on-five — 27th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nick Foligno48.8%44.0%51.6%
Hampus Lindholm53.7%40.8%56.5%
A.J. Greer51.4%43.0%53.7%

48.8% together, 44.0% for him apart and 51.6% for Foligno apart. He was worse away from Foligno, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Foligno did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

91 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 45% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.