Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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13

Nico Hischier

New Jersey Devils Center

The best chance share on the club that led the league in chances, taken from the wrong end of the rink.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18NJD82203252+102610218011.116:19
2018-19NJD6917304702430316010.618:06
2019-20NJD58142236-161221112311.418:04
2020-21NJD216511-943104413.618:31
2021-22NJD70213960-11740215313.719:21
2022-23NJD81314980+331073925612.119:17
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—381109177286+17932051791611.918:13

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

31 goals and 49 assists in 81 games — 80 points — at 19:17 a night. Plus-33, the best figure on the club, with 256 shots at 12.1 per cent, three shorthanded goals and nine game-winners.

59.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 97th percentile and the highest of any Devil, with his ice at 61-39 against an expectation of 59.29-40.44 — which is to say the goals arrived where the chances said they would.

And the deployment behind it runs the other way from his team-mates’. He started 47.6 per cent of his five-on-five shifts in the attacking zone, the 35th percentile: 373 attacking draws against 411 in his own end.

Set that beside Jack Hughes at the 98th percentile and a 57.9 per cent share. New Jersey’s two centres were given opposite ends of the rink, and the one who began in his own came back with the better number. That is the most useful fact in this chapter.

Six seasons, 381 games, 286 points, all of them here.

The Finesse Game

256 shots at a median of 21 feet, 135 of them on goal from inside twenty.

19 goals from inside twenty on 135 shots, 14.07 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71; 7 from twenty to forty on 80.

So the 31 goals are a volume result rather than a finishing one, and the rate says a slightly below-average converter taking an above-average number of chances from the right places.

48 tip-ins out of 342 tracked attempts — 14 per cent, and the highest count on the club by a distance. That is a specific skill and not a small one: it is the shot a man gets by standing where he will be hit, and it is the same instinct that produces three shorthanded goals.

130 wrist shots, 100 snap, 12 slap. 88.1 mph at the 31st percentile, on twelve slap shots, so there is nothing in it to read.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 200, with ten penalty minutes in eighty-one games.

Top speed 22.6 mph, the 68th percentile; 1.9 bursts a game, the 84th; 2.82 miles a game, the 68th. An entirely ordinary set of readings for a first-line centre, which is the point — none of what he does well shows up in the tracking.

He kills penalties, takes the hit to make the play, and is on the ice at the end of games this club is trying to protect. Nine game-winners is the counting shadow of that, and the plus-33 is the rest of it.

The part this book cannot see is the faceoff circle, because the record counts every skater on the ice at a draw and never who took it. What it can see is that his shifts began in his own end more often than in the other team’s, which is the deployment a coach gives the man he trusts.

The Intangibles

First overall in 2017, the captaincy since 2021, and 381 games without ever having played for another organisation.

He has been the second-most-discussed centre on his own team for two seasons and has the better underlying record of the two. Both of those things are true at once.

At twenty-four, with 286 points and a plus-33 taken from harder zone starts than any other forward in this club’s top six, he is a large part of why a club that led the league in chance generation also finished seventh in chances against.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    6 of his 31 goals late or in overtime, 94th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.12 penalty minutes a game over 81, 9th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “First overall in 2017, the captaincy since 2021, and 381 games without ever having played for another organisation.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “That is a specific skill and not a small one: it is the shot a man gets by standing where he will be hit, and it is the same instinct that produces three shorthanded goals.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He kills penalties, takes the hit to make the play, and is on the ice at the end of games this club is trying to protect.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “What it can see is that his shifts began in his own end more often than in the other team's, which is the deployment a coach gives the man he trusts.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,085 minutes

Expected goals
59.4%
97th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.1%
90th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 61 for, 39 against. Expected: 59.3 and 40.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
92nd
Numbers
97th

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 78 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 81 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
73rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.94 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.82 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.1 mph
55th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1085 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NJD took 56.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.4% — 3.3 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,085 minutes at five-on-five — 68th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Tomas Tatar64.2%52.8%59.0%
Jesper Bratt57.2%61.2%59.5%
Ryan Graves57.2%61.0%51.9%

64.2% together, 52.8% for him apart and 59.0% for Tatar apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

339 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 30 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 15% from beyond forty.