Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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56

Erik Haula

New Jersey Devils Left Wing

A seventh-round pick in his tenth season and sixth organisation, converting from close range at two-thirds the league's rate.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14MIN466915+14290115610.710:09
2014-15MIN727714-732101927.612:09
2015-16MIN76142034+21240229914.112:44
2016-17MIN72151126+52810413411.213:49
2017-18VGK76292655-1637110417516.617:22
2018-19VGK15257+110000267.716:35
2019-20CAR/FLA48121224+1224029213.015:50
2020-21NSH5191221+4141228510.616:00
2021-22BOS78182644+194720314112.815:06
2022-23NJD80142741+13472201648.516:38
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—614126155281+5529022719106411.814:35

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

14 goals and 27 assists in 80 games — 41 points — at 16:38 a night. Plus-13, 164 shots at 8.5 per cent, two shorthanded goals, 47 penalty minutes, and no game-winners at all.

56.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 92nd percentile, with his ice at 50-43 against an expectation of 53.42-41.25 — three goals short at the attacking end, which on a club twenty-fifth in finishing is the house pattern.

He started 51.8 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 56th percentile.

Ten seasons, 614 games, 281 points, and six organisations.

The Finesse Game

164 shots at a median of 22 feet, 46 per cent of them from inside twenty.

Inside twenty: 81 shots on goal and 10 goals — 12.35 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty: 49 shots, 3 goals.

That is a well below-average finisher from the only range he shoots from, and it has been true for most of a decade: 126 goals in 614 games at 8.5 per cent last season against a career rate barely different.

36 tip-ins out of 236 tracked attempts and 38 backhands, against eleven slap shots. He plays inside the dots and takes what deflects, which is where the goals he does score come from.

27 assists is the better half. He is a distributor on a scoring line and a net-front presence on a checking one, and the club has used him as both.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 191, with 47 penalty minutes.

Top speed 22.0 mph, the 38th percentile; 0.8 bursts a game, the 46th; 2.58 miles a game, the 51st. The median of the league in every reading, at thirty-two.

He kills penalties, takes the defensive-zone draws on the second line, and finishes his checks without hurting anybody.

The two shorthanded goals are the honest measure of what he is now: a useful forward on both special teams whose even-strength scoring has to be carried by the men beside him.

The Intangibles

One hundred and eighty-second overall in 2009, which is the seventh round, and 614 games later he is in his tenth season and his sixth organisation.

The career high is the 55 points in Vegas in 2017-18 and nothing since has come close. What has stayed constant is that every club that has had him has used him on the penalty kill.

He is thirty-two on a team whose bottom six is its weakest part, and the file says he is exactly good enough to hold that job and not good enough to be moved up out of it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He kills penalties, takes the defensive-zone draws on the second line, and finishes his checks without hurting anybody.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He plays inside the dots and takes what deflects, which is where the goals he does score come from.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He is a distributor on a scoring line and a net-front presence on a checking one, and the club has used him as both.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,076 minutes

Expected goals
56.4%
92nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.1%
90th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 50 for, 43 against. Expected: 53.4 and 41.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
92nd

The numbers rank him 44 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 80 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
46th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.84 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.58 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.6 mph
76th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1076 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NJD took 56.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.4% — 0.3 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,076 minutes at five-on-five — 67th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jack Hughes60.9%53.1%56.2%
Damon Severson62.8%52.0%58.4%
Dougie Hamilton54.1%57.7%56.5%

60.9% together, 53.1% for him apart and 56.2% for Hughes apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

228 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.