Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

20

Michael McLeod

New Jersey Devils Center

Two hundred and seventeen attacking-zone starts against 392 in his own end, at the 92nd percentile in bursts and the 19th in ground covered.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19NJD21033-813000210.012:12
2019-20NJD12022+44000110.010:14
2020-21NJD529615-12420026015.013:49
2021-22NJD7761420-1352000787.713:20
2022-23NJD8042226+643001904.412:15
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—242194766-231540032607.312:50

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 22 assists in 80 games — 26 points — at 12:15 a night. Plus-6, 90 shots at 4.4 per cent, 43 penalty minutes.

Twenty-two assists on four goals is the shape of the whole file.

51.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 63rd percentile, with his ice at 34-30 against an expectation of 38.81-36.61 across 874 minutes.

And the deployment: 217 attacking-zone draws against 392 in his own end — 35.6 per cent, the 7th percentile of this book. New Jersey started this line in its own end and asked it to get out, and a 51.5 per cent chance share out of that is a good result rather than an ordinary one.

Five seasons, 242 games, 66 points, all of them here.

The Finesse Game

90 shots at a median of 24 feet, and four goals in eighty games at 4.4 per cent.

Inside twenty: 34 shots on goal, 2 goals. Twenty to forty: 28 shots, 1 goal. Beyond forty: 21 shots, 1 goal. There is no band where anything happens.

80.8 mph at the 2nd percentile of measured shot speed, on six slap shots out of 122 tracked attempts — which is a statement about a man who never winds up, and in his case the wrist shot is not much of a substitute.

59 wrist shots and 21 backhands. The backhand count is the tell: this is a player working below the goal line and out of the corners rather than one setting up to shoot.

22 assists from a fourth-line centre is real and it is the only offensive thing in the file.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 190, with 43 penalty minutes.

2.5 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the 92nd percentile — and 2.06 miles a game, the 19th. Top speed 23.0 mph, the 85th.

That combination is worth pausing on. He is near the top of the league in how often he reaches full speed and near the bottom in total ground covered, which is what twelve minutes a night of short, hard shifts looks like when it is measured: the mileage is low because the ice time is, and the sprints per minute are enormous.

He forechecks at speed, kills penalties, and starts every shift in his own end. That is the job and the tracking says he does it at full effort.

The Intangibles

Twelfth overall in 2016, and 66 points in 242 games five seasons later.

That is a first-round pick who has become a fourth-line centre, and the honest reading of the file is that this is now what he is rather than a step towards something else.

What makes him useful is narrow and genuine: he is the man this club sends out when the puck is in the wrong end, he is fast enough to chase it down, and the chance share says the shifts do not go backwards.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He forechecks at speed, kills penalties, and starts every shift in his own end.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He is near the top of the league in how often he reaches full speed and near the bottom in total ground covered, which is what twelve minutes a night of short, hard shifts looks like when it is measured: the mileage is low because the ice time is, and the sprints per minute are enormous.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “22 assists from a fourth-line centre is real and it is the only offensive thing in the file.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 874 minutes

Expected goals
51.5%
63rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.6%
58th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 30 against. Expected: 38.8 and 36.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
63rd

The two rank him within 15 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 80 games

Top speed
23.0 mph
88th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.52 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.06 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
80.8 mph
20th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 874 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NJD took 56.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.5% — 4.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 874 minutes at five-on-five — 46th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Miles Wood48.1%57.5%54.4%
Nathan Bastian55.3%48.9%49.8%
Damon Severson55.8%48.7%60.9%

48.1% together, 57.5% for him apart and 54.4% for Wood apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

115 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.