This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Warren Foegele
Edmonton Oilers Left Wing
The 94th percentile in expected-goal share, and thirteen goals to show for it.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | CAR | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 33.3 | 11:56 |
| 2018-19 | CAR | 77 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -17 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 106 | 9.4 | 12:30 |
| 2019-20 | CAR | 68 | 13 | 17 | 30 | +9 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 129 | 10.1 | 13:43 |
| 2020-21 | CAR | 53 | 10 | 10 | 20 | +4 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 91 | 11.0 | 14:09 |
| 2021-22 | EDM | 82 | 12 | 14 | 26 | -9 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 142 | 8.5 | 12:37 |
| 2022-23 | EDM | 67 | 13 | 15 | 28 | +7 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 126 | 10.3 | 12:42 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 349 | 60 | 62 | 122 | -3 | 126 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 600 | 10.0 | 13:03 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
13 goals and 15 assists in 67 games, plus-7, 12:42 a night, 126 shots at 10.3 per cent.
57.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 787 minutes, the 94th percentile — the third-best figure on the club, behind Bouchard and McDavid — with his ice at 35-29 against an expectation of 40.09-29.57.
Five goals short at the offensive end and exactly as expected at the defensive one. That is the report: he creates a great deal more than gets converted.
Six seasons, 349 games, 122 points.
The Finesse Game
126 shots at a median of 20 feet, 49 per cent from inside twenty and 16 per cent from beyond forty.
Inside forty: 105 shots, thirteen goals, 12.38 per cent. Beyond forty: 19 shots, none.
He gets to the slot as often as anyone on the club outside the top line and converts at an ordinary rate when he arrives. That is the ceiling: 60 goals in 349 career games, and the positions are better than the hands.
90.0 mph at the 43rd percentile.
The Physical Game
6-2 and 205. 22.3 mph at the 51st percentile and 1.5 bursts over twenty a game at the 73rd, on 2.04 miles a game at the 18th percentile — low mileage, which at twelve minutes a night is ice time rather than effort.
28 penalty minutes in 67 games is a moderate rate.
He forechecks first, retrieves pucks and plays the wall, and the 94th-percentile possession share is what that produces when it works.
The Intangibles
67th overall in 2014 out of Kingston, four Carolina seasons and two in Edmonton.
He is 27 and has never scored more than 13. What he has done is drive possession on a third line for two years on a club that scored 325 goals, which is a real and unglamorous job.
The five goals below expectation are the argument for expecting more. The 349 games are the argument against.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there
57.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 52.5% for his club in the minutes he sat: +5.0, 91st percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it
“He forechecks first, retrieves pucks and plays the wall, and the 94th-percentile possession share is what that produces when it works.”
“He forechecks first, retrieves pucks and plays the wall”
“He gets to the slot as often as anyone on the club outside the top line”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 787 minutes
- Expected goals
- 57.5%
- 94th pct
- Shot attempts
- 55.2%
- 91st pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 35 for, 29 against. Expected: 40.1 and 29.6.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 56 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 67 games
- Top speed
- 22.3 mph
- 57th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 1.51 a game
- Distance
- 2.04 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 90.0 mph
- 66th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.9
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 787 minutes at five-on-five
- Ryan McLeod41%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- EDM took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 57.5% — 4.0 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- Third line, 787 minutes at five-on-five — 38th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McLeod | 60.9% | 55.6% | 51.0% |
| Darnell Nurse | 58.5% | 57.0% | 50.8% |
| Brett Kulak | 51.8% | 60.5% | 50.6% |
60.9% together, 55.6% for him apart and 51.0% for McLeod apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
182 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 50% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.