Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

10

Derek Ryan

Edmonton Oilers Center

Undrafted, first NHL game at 29, and five hundred of them since.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16CAR6202+12100540.012:12
2016-17CAR67111829-8224137315.114:53
2017-18CAR80152338-152830113511.115:36
2018-19CGY81132538+212420110312.613:48
2019-20CGY68101929+9101101029.814:33
2020-21CGY4321113+616000375.411:53
2021-22EDM75101222-480027213.911:26
2022-23EDM8013720+11280209214.111:10
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—50076115191+21138114761912.313:22

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

13 goals and 7 assists in 80 games, plus-11, 11:10 a night — more goals than assists, at 36, which he had never managed across a full season before.

54.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 783 minutes, the 86th percentile, with his ice at 31-24 against an expectation of 33.46-27.47. Two short at the offensive end and three better at the other.

Eight seasons, 500 games, 191 points. He did not play his first NHL game until he was 29.

The Finesse Game

92 shots at a median of 18 feet, 56 per cent from inside twenty and 13 per cent from beyond forty.

Inside forty: 76 shots, thirteen goals, 17.11 per cent. Beyond forty: 9 shots, none.

11 tip-ins and 15 backhands out of 92 attempts. He plays in the blue paint and around the goal line, which at 5-10 and 36 is where the goals have to come from.

86.3 mph at the 18th percentile. Thirteen goals off that shot, in eleven minutes a night, is the most efficient thing on this roster after the top line.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 185. 21.8 mph at the 26th percentile, 0.8 bursts a game at the 41st, 1.85 miles a game at the 9th percentile — slow, and covering very little ground.

The mileage is eleven-minute nights. The speed is 36 years old.

28 penalty minutes in 80 games. He takes defensive-zone draws and kills penalties, and neither of those requires him to be fast, which is the whole reason the career has lasted this long.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, out of the University of Alberta, and then several years in European leagues before Carolina signed him at 28.

That is one of the most improbable routes in this book: five hundred NHL games, none of them before 29, from a player nobody wanted at 18, 20 or 25.

He is 36 and plays a fourth line for a club with a Cup window. The faceoffs and the penalty killing are the job and he has done both for eight years.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    66.7% of his attempts in the slot, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, out of the University of Alberta, and then several years in European leagues before Carolina signed him at 28.”

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “He takes defensive-zone draws and kills penalties, and neither of those requires him to be fast, which is the whole reason the career has lasted this long.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “The faceoffs and the penalty killing are the job and he has done both for eight years.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He plays in the blue paint and around the goal line, which at 5-10 and 36 is where the goals have to come from.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 783 minutes

Expected goals
54.9%
86th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.8%
78th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 31 for, 24 against. Expected: 33.5 and 27.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
20th
Numbers
86th

The numbers rank him 66 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 80 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
36th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.75 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.85 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.3 mph
44th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 783 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
EDM took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.9% — 1.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 783 minutes at five-on-five — 38th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Devin Shore48.5%59.3%44.6%
Brett Kulak52.5%56.3%50.4%
Evan Bouchard65.1%50.5%56.1%

48.5% together, 59.3% for him apart and 44.6% for Shore apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Shore behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

114 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 56% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.