Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

91

Evander Kane

Edmonton Oilers Left Wing

Sixteen goals in 41 games, in a season that ended in November and started again in March.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10ATL66141226+26201312711.014:00
2010-11ATL73192443-12684022348.117:52
2011-12WPG74302757+115360428710.417:31
2012-13WPG48171633-3802041908.920:27
2013-14WPG63192241-7661242507.620:17
2014-15WPG37101222-1564111267.919:19
2015-16BUF65201535-14912132717.421:02
2016-17BUF70281543-1711330526010.819:12
2017-18BUF/SJS78292554-9823423079.419:34
2018-19SJS75302656-415351126811.218:25
2019-20SJS64262147-12122142621612.019:32
2020-21SJS56222749-14232219411.320:12
2021-22EDM43221739+256032315214.519:27
2022-23EDM41161228-45301314611.018:42
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—853302271573-461101501743302810.018:53

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

16 goals and 12 assists in 41 games, minus-4, 53 penalty minutes, 18:42 a night, 146 shots at 11.0 per cent.

He missed 41 games. A skate blade severed tendons in his wrist in November, an injury with no real precedent in the sport, and he came back in March.

48.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 659 minutes, the 41st percentile, with his ice at 26-32 against an expectation of 28.96-30.27. Three short at the offensive end and two long at the other.

Fourteen seasons, 853 games, 302 goals.

The Finesse Game

146 shots at a median of 25 feet, 40 per cent from inside twenty and 18 per cent from beyond forty.

Inside forty: 117 shots, fifteen goals, 12.82 per cent. Beyond forty: 25 shots, one.

146 shots in 41 games is 3.6 a night, which is a first-line volume and has been his whole career: he has taken 250 or more shots in six different seasons.

90.8 mph at the 49th percentile. The shot is average and the volume and the net-front work are the mechanism.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 218. 22.8 mph at the 80th percentile with 1.7 bursts over twenty a game at the 78th, on 2.86 miles a game at the 71st — quick, and covering ground, at 31 and in a half-season back from a severed wrist.

53 penalty minutes in 41 games is a high rate and a career-long one: 153 minutes in 2018-19, 122 the year after, and 1,101 in total.

He forechecks hard, finishes checks and plays on the edge of the rules, which is the reason Edmonton wanted him and the reason three clubs have moved on from him.

The Intangibles

Fourth overall in 2009 to Atlanta, and a career that has produced 302 goals and more off-ice controversy than any other player in this book.

The hockey record is unambiguous: 22 goals in 43 games in his first Edmonton half-season, 16 in 41 in his second, and a rate of better than a third of a goal a game for fourteen years.

He is 32, on a long contract, and the question is availability rather than ability.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    16:04 a game at five-on-five, 99th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He forechecks hard, finishes checks and plays on the edge of the rules”

  • takes-libertiesa strength· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “plays on the edge of the rules, which is the reason Edmonton wanted him and the reason three clubs have moved on from him”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “The shot is average and the volume and the net-front work are the mechanism.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 659 minutes

Expected goals
48.9%
42nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.9%
61st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 26 for, 32 against. Expected: 29.0 and 30.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
74th
Numbers
42nd

The report ranks him 32 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 41 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
84th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.66 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.86 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.8 mph
71st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 659 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
EDM took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.9% — 4.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
659 minutes at five-on-five — 27th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Leon Draisaitl46.9%50.9%54.8%
Kailer Yamamoto49.9%48.0%54.8%
Darnell Nurse46.6%50.8%53.5%

46.9% together, 50.9% for him apart and 54.8% for Draisaitl apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

186 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 16 of them goals. His median goal came from 25 feet. 41% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.