Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

18

Zach Hyman

Edmonton Oilers Left Wing

A median shot distance of twelve feet — the closest of any forward in this book.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16TOR164260180003710.815:41
2016-17TOR82101828+2300431566.416:42
2017-18TOR82152540+223701214810.117:21
2018-19TOR71212041+166501414414.617:17
2019-20TOR51211637+132331110619.819:06
2020-21TOR43151833+192830411513.019:22
2021-22EDM76272754-93651421312.719:28
2022-23EDM79364783+1339150327613.020:09
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—500149173322+7627626821119512.518:18

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

36 goals and 47 assists in 79 games — 83 points, a career high by 29 — plus-13, 20:09 a night, 276 shots at 13.0 per cent.

55.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 87th percentile, with his ice at 79-65 against an expectation of 69.57-56.18. Nine better than the chances at one end and nine worse at the other.

Eight seasons, 500 games, 322 points. He had never scored more than 27 before arriving in Edmonton.

The Finesse Game

276 shots at a median of 12 feet — 67 per cent from inside twenty and 6 per cent from beyond forty. That is among the closest median shot distances of any forward in this book, and it is not close: Joe Pavelski, the most extreme net-front player in the league by reputation, sits at 16.

Inside forty: 259 shots on goal, 35 goals, 13.51 per cent. Beyond forty: 17 shots, one.

The shot-type record is the explanation: 43 tip-ins, 49 backhands and 44 snap shots out of 276 attempts. Nearly a third of everything he put on net was either redirected or taken on his backhand, which describes a man standing in the blue paint for two hours a week.

91.0 mph at the 51st percentile. Entirely irrelevant at twelve feet.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 206. 22.9 mph at the 84th percentile and 2.4 bursts over twenty a game at the 91st, on 2.77 miles a game at the 65th.

He is quicker than the reputation and the bursts are the reason he can forecheck first and still be in front of the net when the puck arrives.

39 penalty minutes in 79 games. He takes far more punishment than he gives and the goals are the receipt: 35 of them from a place where a defenceman is entitled to cross-check him.

He has played 76 or more games in each of his two Edmonton seasons.

The Intangibles

123rd overall in 2010 — a fifth-round pick — out of Michigan, where he led the country in scoring, and five Toronto years spent as the forechecker on somebody else’s line.

He signed in Edmonton at 29 for seven years and has scored 27 and 36. Playing with McDavid is the obvious explanation and it is only half of one: the tip-ins and the backhands are his, and no linemate creates 43 deflections.

He has also written children’s books, which is a fact this book has no metric for and records anyway.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    76.5% of his attempts in the slot, 99th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    15:38 a game at five-on-five, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “43 tip-ins, 49 backhands and 44 snap shots out of 276 attempts.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “the bursts are the reason he can forecheck first and still be in front of the net when the puck arrives”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “35 of them from a place where a defenceman is entitled to cross-check him”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,235 minutes

Expected goals
55.3%
88th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.2%
80th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 79 for, 65 against. Expected: 69.6 and 56.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
83rd
Numbers
88th

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 79 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
86th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.39 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.77 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.0 mph
73rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1235 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
EDM took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.3% — 1.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,235 minutes at five-on-five — 86th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Connor McDavid58.9%48.8%54.8%
Leon Draisaitl54.5%56.1%51.3%
Darnell Nurse52.9%57.1%51.8%

58.9% together, 48.8% for him apart and 54.8% for McDavid apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

366 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 36 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 68% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.