Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

32

Jack Campbell

Edmonton Oilers Goaltender

A .888 in the first year of a five-year contract.

SeasonTeamGPWLOTLGAGAASOSASV%
2013-14DAL101066.00047.872
2016-17LAK100000.00051.000
2017-18LAK5202112.480145.924
2018-19LAK3110141612.302845.928
2019-20LAK/TOR2611123732.800761.904
2020-21TOR221732462.152585.921
2021-22TOR4931961232.6451430.914
2022-23EDM3621941153.4111027.888
2023-24 so far——————————
Career—1719248184352.72104845.910

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

36 games, 21-9-4, .888 — the sixth-worst save percentage in the league among goaltenders who played 25 games — with a 3.41 average and one shutout on 1,027 shots.

The 21 wins are the misleading number. He played behind the highest-scoring club in the National Hockey League and conceded 3.41 a game.

The year before, in Toronto, he posted .9140 across 49 games. The two before that, .9214 and .9041.

Eight seasons, 171 games.

The Finesse Game

6-3 and 200. The technique has always been athletic rather than structural — he is quick across the crease and relies on it, and when the reads are late the recoveries have to be spectacular.

The rebound is where the season came apart. He does not consistently control the first save, and Edmonton finished 24th in expected goals against on the penalty kill, which is precisely the situation in which a second chance becomes a goal.

He is an ordinary puck-handler on a club whose defencemen are not asked to retrieve much.

The Intangibles

11th overall in 2010 to Dallas — very high for a goaltender — and a decade of being a prospect before 22 good games in Toronto at 29 turned into a five-year contract in Edmonton at 30.

He is 31 with 171 NHL games, three of his eight seasons under .905, and four years left.

Edmonton scored the most goals in the league, generated the fifth-most chances and did not reach a Conference Final. The crease is the most obvious place to look, and this contract is why nobody could do much about it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • rebound-controlhe lacks it· where the second chance ends up

    “He does not consistently control the first save, and Edmonton finished 24th in expected goals against on the penalty kill, which is precisely the situation in which a second chance becomes a goal.”

  • lateral-recoverya strength· post-to-post, and across the slot

    “he is quick across the crease and relies on it, and when the reads are late the recoveries have to be spectacular”