Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

73

Vincent Desharnais

Edmonton Oilers Defense

Six-foot-seven, drafted 183rd, and a first NHL game at 26.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2022-23EDM36055+1531000170.013:33
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—36055+1531000170.013:33

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

No goals and 5 assists in 36 games, plus-15, 31 penalty minutes, 13:33 a night — a first NHL season at 26.

54.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 409 minutes, the 81st percentile, with his ice at 20-12 against an expectation of 17.96-15.18. Two better than the chances at the offensive end and three better at the defensive one.

On 409 minutes none of it settles anything, and the plus-15 in 36 games is one of the highest rates on the club.

The Finesse Game

17 shots at a median of 57 feet, 81 per cent from beyond forty and 4 per cent from inside twenty — the furthest median shot distance of any player in these five chapters.

Beyond forty: 13 shots on goal, none in. Inside forty: 4 shots, none in.

Seventeen shots in 36 games. There is no offensive game whatsoever and the club has not asked for one.

85.0 mph at the 12th percentile.

The Physical Game

6-7 and 225 — one of six skaters this tall in the edition — and this is the whole report.

23.0 mph at the 87th percentile is genuinely surprising for a man that size, against 0.2 bursts over twenty a game at the 6th and 1.83 miles a game at the 9th. He can reach speed and essentially never does.

31 penalty minutes in 36 games is a very high rate at thirteen minutes a night. He defends by occupying space, closing lanes with an enormous stick and moving people out of the front of his net.

Against speed through the neutral zone he is exposed, and third-pair minutes are where that is survivable.

The Intangibles

183rd overall in 2016 — the seventh round — four years at Providence, four in the American league, and a first NHL game at 26.

He is one of a handful of seventh-round picks in this edition to become an NHL regular, and the route was as long as the draft position implies.

That he did it on the club that drafted him, eight years later, is the unusual part.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He defends by occupying space, closing lanes with an enormous stick and moving people out of the front of his net.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “moving people out of the front of his net”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He defends by occupying space”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 409 minutes

Expected goals
54.2%
82nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.1%
54th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 20 for, 12 against. Expected: 18.0 and 15.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
15th
Numbers
82nd

The numbers rank him 67 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 36 games

Top speed
23.0 mph
95th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.22 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.83 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.0 mph
18th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 409 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
EDM took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.2% — 0.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
409 minutes at five-on-five — 11th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brett Kulak54.4%53.9%50.1%
Leon Draisaitl54.1%54.2%52.8%
Warren Foegele59.8%51.7%57.2%

54.4% together, 53.9% for him apart and 50.1% for Kulak apart. Kulak was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Kulak than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

27 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 0 of them goals. 4% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 81% from beyond forty.