Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

8

Tyson Barrie

Nashville Predators Defense

One hundred and eleven shots from beyond forty feet and nine goals, at the sixth percentile in bursts of speed.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12COL10000-20000150.017:39
2012-13COL3221113-1110101583.521:35
2013-14COL64132538+172040510112.918:33
2014-15COL80124153+5262001398.621:22
2015-16COL78133649-16313151727.623:12
2016-17COL7473138-34181021823.923:18
2017-18COL68144357-15227031787.922:42
2018-19COL78144559-3362022186.421:47
2019-20TOR7053439-7161001693.021:53
2020-21EDM5684048+4104021465.521:24
2021-22EDM7373441+3183001494.718:58
2022-23EDM/NSH85134255-7364011638.019:46
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—768108382490-662433212116906.421:16

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

13 goals and 42 assists in 85 games — 55 points — split between Edmonton and Nashville. Minus-7, 19:46 a night, 163 shots, 36 penalty minutes.

Eighty-five games, because the trade fell between two schedules.

49.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 43rd percentile, with his ice at 51-55 against an expectation of 57.48-59.79 — six goals short at the offensive end and five better at the defensive.

He started 50.8 per cent of his five-on-five shifts in the attacking zone, the 50th percentile, so the deployment was exactly neutral and the 43rd-percentile chance share is his own.

Twelve seasons, 768 games, 490 points, of which 382 are assists.

The Finesse Game

163 shots at a median of 52 feet, 9 per cent from inside twenty and 71 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty feet: 111 shots on goal and 9 goals — 8.11 per cent, the highest rate of any defenceman in these five chapters and more than double the league rate of 3.17. Inside forty: 45 shots, 4 goals.

He and Josi between them put 273 shots on goal from beyond forty feet and scored 20 — 7.33 per cent. Detroit’s seven defencemen took 517 from the same distance and scored 16. That is the same test on two blue lines and it comes back with opposite answers.

Ninety-nine slap shots out of 220 tracked attempts — a shade under half, and the second-highest count in this batch behind Josi’s hundred. The two of them are the reason Nashville’s blue line breaks the pattern, and the tempting explanation is that a point shot only pays if it is a real point shot. Measured across the league it is worth about a point and a half of conversion, which is a good deal less than the gap it is being asked to explain.

96.3 mph at the 85th percentile, on that volume, so the reading holds.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 197, and 36 penalty minutes in 85 games.

Top speed 21.7 mph, the 22nd percentile; bursts 0.2 a game, the 6th percentile; 2.81 miles a game, the 68th.

One burst of speed every five games, from a defenceman who plays twenty minutes. That is close to the floor of the league and it is the reason the defensive record has followed him through four organisations.

He does not take the body, does not clear a crease and does not defend the front of his own net. Everything he is worth is at the other end.

The Intangibles

Sixty-fourth overall in 2009 to Colorado, and then Toronto, Edmonton and Nashville — three organisations in four seasons.

The career line is 108 goals and 382 assists in 768 games, which is a genuinely productive offensive defenceman, and a defensive record that has caused four clubs to move him. Both halves are real.

He is thirty-two. Nashville wants the power play and will have to live with the rest, and on a club that finished twenty-fourth in chance generation, the power play is the part it needs.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range

    9 of 154 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 5.8%, 98th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it

  • durable· was available

    85 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The career line is 108 goals and 382 assists in 768 games, which is a genuinely productive offensive defenceman, and a defensive record that has caused four clubs to move him.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He does not take the body, does not clear a crease and does not defend the front of his own net.”

  • defensively-responsiblehe lacks it· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “One burst of speed every five games, from a defenceman who plays twenty minutes.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,324 minutes

Expected goals
49%
43rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.7%
36th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 51 for, 55 against. Expected: 57.5 and 59.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
43rd

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 85 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
56th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.22 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.81 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.3 mph
79th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with EDM · 913 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NSH took 47.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.0% — 2.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
1,324 minutes at five-on-five — 91st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brett Kulak50.1%48.3%51.4%
Leon Draisaitl56.7%46.4%51.7%
Zach Hyman62.3%44.4%53.1%

50.1% together, 48.3% for him apart and 51.4% for Kulak apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

214 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 48 feet. 10% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 71% from beyond forty.