Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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5

Cody Ceci

Edmonton Oilers Defense

One goal in 80 games, and none of his fifty shots from beyond forty feet went in.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14OTT49369-514002823.717:12
2014-15OTT8151621-461001303.919:17
2015-16OTT75101626+9180021168.619:18
2016-17OTT7921517-11200001431.423:12
2017-18OTT8251419-27120011433.523:20
2018-19OTT7471926-22180021325.322:34
2019-20TOR56178+720001482.120:32
2020-21PIT5341317+1810001586.918:31
2021-22EDM7852328+8140001024.920:54
2022-23EDM8011415+1124000881.120:08
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—70743143186-1615610910424.120:42

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 14 assists in 80 games, plus-11, 20:08 a night.

50.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,338 minutes, the 58th percentile, with his ice at 55-58 against an expectation of 60.60-58.76. Six goals short at the offensive end and exactly as expected at the defensive one, which is an unusual shape and reads as a defenceman whose partners did not finish.

Ten seasons, 707 games, 186 points.

The Finesse Game

88 shots at a median of 50 feet, 68 per cent from beyond forty and 13 per cent from inside twenty.

Beyond forty: 50 shots on goal, none in. Inside forty: 25 shots, one goal.

One goal in 80 games at twenty minutes a night. He has scored ten once, in 2015-16, and has not managed more than seven in any other season.

95.6 mph at the 81st percentile with 19 slap shots behind it. The fifth Edmonton defenceman in this chapter with an above-average registered shot, and between the five of them they scored ten goals from beyond forty feet all season.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 210. 22.2 mph at the 47th percentile, 0.6 bursts a game at the 31st, 2.74 miles a game at the 63rd — ordinary in all three.

24 penalty minutes in 80 games at twenty minutes a night is a low rate. He is a positional defenceman who uses his reach and his size rather than his body, and the 24 minutes last season were the first time in ten years he has gone above twenty.

He plays the right side of a shutdown pair and the possession numbers have finally caught up with what the eye said in Ottawa.

The Intangibles

15th overall in 2012, out of Ottawa and drafted by Ottawa, and six seasons there being blamed for a great deal.

Toronto, Pittsburgh and now two Edmonton seasons at plus-8 and plus-11 with an above-average possession share. The reputation he acquired at 22 has outlasted every piece of evidence since.

He is a good third-pair defenceman being played on the second, which is the honest version of both the criticism and the defence.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He is a positional defenceman who uses his reach and his size rather than his body”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He plays the right side of a shutdown pair and the possession numbers have finally caught up with what the eye said in Ottawa.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,338 minutes

Expected goals
50.8%
58th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.2%
55th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 55 for, 58 against. Expected: 60.6 and 58.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
15th
Numbers
58th

The numbers rank him 43 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 80 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
76th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.63 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.74 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.6 mph
74th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1338 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
EDM took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.8% — 2.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,338 minutes at five-on-five — 92nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Darnell Nurse50.5%51.9%56.1%
Connor McDavid54.6%48.2%58.9%
Leon Draisaitl46.9%53.2%56.4%

50.5% together, 51.9% for him apart and 56.1% for Nurse apart. Nurse was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

111 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 39 feet. 13% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 68% from beyond forty.