Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

13

Mattias Janmark

Edmonton Oilers Center

Seven wrap-arounds out of 79 shots, and three shorthanded goals.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16DAL73151429+121601310813.914:10
2017-18DAL81191534-132442413614.016:56
2018-19DAL8161925-4240001055.715:13
2019-20DAL6261521-512110867.014:37
2020-21CHI/VGK56111324-12104109511.617:05
2021-22VGK6791625+3210218910.114:21
2022-23EDM66101525+9300317912.714:40
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—48676107183-10137910969810.915:17

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

10 goals and 15 assists in 66 games, plus-9, 14:40 a night — and three shorthanded goals, second on the club behind McDavid’s four.

49.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 818 minutes, the 45th percentile, with his ice at 30-30 against an expectation of 30.26-31.30. Both ends within a goal of the chances.

Seven seasons, 486 games, 183 points, across four organisations. He missed the whole of 2016-17 with a knee injury.

The Finesse Game

79 shots at a median of 15 feet and 59 per cent from inside twenty — one of the closest-range distributions in these five chapters.

Inside forty: 62 shots, eight goals, 12.90 per cent. Beyond forty: 11 shots, two goals.

Seven wrap-arounds out of 79 attempts is a very high share and describes a penalty-killing forward who attacks from behind the net when he gets the puck on a rush.

86.9 mph at the 21st percentile. The shot is soft; the positions are excellent.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 205. 22.4 mph at the 57th percentile with 1.6 bursts over twenty a game at the 77th, on 2.26 miles a game at the 28th.

Short shifts at pace, which is precisely what a penalty-killer’s tracking line looks like and is consistent with the three shorthanded goals.

30 penalty minutes in 66 games. He is not physical and the game is entirely positional and anticipatory.

The Intangibles

79th overall in 2013 to Detroit, traded to Dallas before he played a game, and a career of four clubs and one job.

He is 30 and has been a penalty-killing third-line forward for seven years. Edmonton finished 24th in expected goals against a man short and re-signed him, which tells you how they see the role and how much help they need in it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    66.7% of his attempts in the slot, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “Short shifts at pace, which is precisely what a penalty-killer's tracking line looks like and is consistent with the three shorthanded goals.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He is not physical and the game is entirely positional and anticipatory.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 818 minutes

Expected goals
49.2%
45th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49%
45th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 30 for, 30 against. Expected: 30.3 and 31.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
20th
Numbers
45th

The numbers rank him 25 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 66 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
63rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.64 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.26 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.9 mph
47th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 818 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
EDM took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.2% — 4.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 818 minutes at five-on-five — 41st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins46.8%51.0%56.3%
Darnell Nurse47.6%50.2%53.2%
Brett Kulak42.8%52.5%52.8%

46.8% together, 51.0% for him apart and 56.3% for Nugent-Hopkins apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

96 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 59% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.