Armchair Hockey Scout

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2026-27 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2026-27 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Photo by All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Edmonton Oilers Center #93

A first-overall pick who became something more useful than a star: the player who makes whichever line he is put on work.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12EDM62183452-21630213413.417:36
2012-13EDM4042024+38200785.118:52
2013-14EDM80193756-122660417810.720:24
2014-15EDM76243256-122520218912.720:38
2015-16EDM55122234-91840110811.119:04
2016-17EDM82182543-10295042009.017:42
2017-18EDM62242448+102042215115.918:05
2018-19EDM82284169-132681320813.520:06
2019-20EDM65223961+13370417212.820:28
2020-21EDM52161935-42290213511.820:46
2021-22EDM63113950+3161311547.119:19
2022-23EDM823767104+1235151320118.419:48
2023-24EDM80184967+10364031839.819:37
2024-25EDM78202949+42472516412.218:58
2025-26EDM72203656-921110213315.019:04
2026-27 so far—————————————
Career—1031291513804-2835588938238812.219:23

This Season So Far

The 2026-27 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

20 goals and 56 points in 72 games, 11 of the goals on the power play, and a minus-9 that says more about where he was deployed than about how he played. He passed 1,000 career games along the way.

The Finesse Game

The hands are quiet and very good. His best work comes from the half-wall on the power play, where he holds the puck just long enough to move a penalty killer and then puts it through the lane that killer has vacated. The pass across to the far circle is his signature, and he throws it flat and hard enough to be one-timed.

At even strength he is a connector. He is the player who takes a bad pass in his feet, settles it, and turns a broken zone entry into a possession. None of that shows up anywhere except in the fact that lines with him on them keep the puck.

He plays center or the left side without a drop-off, which is why he has spent a decade being moved around to fix whatever is broken that month. He kills penalties, takes the draw, and has made himself genuinely trustworthy in his own end — none of which anyone projected when he went 1st overall. Trustworthy there is not the same as sent there: 56.9 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 78th percentile.

The Physical Game

Slight, and always has been. Listed at 192 and does not play heavier than that. He is not going to win a wall battle against a real defenseman, so he does not try one — he wins pucks with his stick, his angles and his timing, and he is harder to knock off balance than the frame suggests.

He blocks shots and takes hits to make plays. He does not hit.

The Intangibles

15 years in one place, most of them on teams that were bad before they were good, and he has taken every role the club has needed without a word about it: first-line center, third-line center, McDavid’s winger, penalty killer. That kind of flexibility usually gets called selfless and undervalued. Both are true here.

He is no longer quick enough to drive his own line against top competition. He is still a better hockey player at 33 than he was at 23, which is not something you get to say about many first-overall picks.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 973 minutes

Expected goals
51.5%
68th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.4%
51st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 40 for, 49 against. Expected: 45.7 and 43.0.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted
Report
86th
Numbers
68th

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written with these numbers on screen, so the agreement is not corroboration — the arithmetic is on both sides of it.

Both bars are percentiles among the 656 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 79 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2025-26 · 72 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
76th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
0.88 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.95 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.5 mph
73rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.6

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

5

points in his last 10 games — 3 goals, 2 assists, 24 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 · 973 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2025-26

The club
EDM took 51.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.5% — 0.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 973 minutes at five-on-five — 57th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Connor McDavid55.6%43.5%58.4%
Zach Hyman54.9%46.6%58.7%
Evan Bouchard57.9%45.5%58.2%

55.6% together, 43.5% for him apart and 58.4% for McDavid apart. He was worse away from McDavid, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than McDavid did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

201 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 21 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 46% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.