This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Connor Bedard
Chicago Blackhawks Center
Sixty-one points at eighteen on the club that scored fewer goals than anybody, and the quickest release in his draft class.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | CHI | 68 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -44 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 206 | 10.7 | 19:47 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 68 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -44 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 206 | 10.7 | 19:47 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
Sixty-eight games at 18, 22 goals and 39 assists for 61 points, 4 of the goals on the power play, 19:47 a night. He took 206 shots, more than anybody on the club, and converted 10.68 per cent.
He was also minus-44. He took 41.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,056 minutes, the 7th percentile, and his ice went 38-67 against an expectation of 39.66-56.05. Seventeen goals of scoring went missing with the best player on the club on the ice, which is what happens when an eighteen-year-old centre is given the hardest matchup on a roster that took 42.4 per cent of the shot attempts. None of it is a verdict on him, and the club spent the entire summer buying wingers because of it.
The Finesse Game
The release is the thing. It leaves from a standstill, off the wrong foot, with no wind-up a goaltender can read, and it is already among the quickest in the league — a shot that arrives before the goaltender has finished setting for it. He took his 206 attempts from a median of 31 feet with 27 per cent from inside 20.
The passing may be the better half. Thirty-nine assists in 68 games on this roster is a remarkable number, and he throws pucks through seams that his linemates have not yet realised are open. He handles the puck in traffic at full speed and does not need space to make a play, which is the skill that will keep him in the top ten scorers for a decade.
The skating is very good rather than elite, and the first three strides are the part that will need professional conditioning to keep up with the rest.
The Physical Game
He is 5-10 and 190 and gets knocked off the puck below the goal line by grown men. Twenty-eight penalty minutes in 68 games is a moderate rate for a first-line centre and none of it is fighting.
He goes to the difficult areas anyway and takes the punishment that comes with it. Twenty-seven per cent of his attempts came from inside 20 feet, which for a player this size on a club this bad is a choice about willingness rather than about opportunity.
The Intangibles
First overall in 2023, from North Vancouver, and the most anticipated arrival in the league in a decade. He played the whole season as the opposition’s only assignment, on a roster where the second-leading scorer was also minus-44, and produced 61 points anyway.
The minus-44 is the club. The 61 points are him. At 19 he is already the reason a franchise exists and the only question left is how quickly the roster catches up.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
- he lacks itraised, and he does not have it
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- workhorse· carries the load at even strength
15:32 a game at five-on-five, 96th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it
“He handles the puck in traffic at full speed and does not need space to make a play, which is the skill that will keep him in the top ten scorers for a decade.”
“Thirty-nine assists in 68 games on this roster is a remarkable number, and he throws pucks through seams that his linemates have not yet realised are open.”
“He is 5-10 and 190 and gets knocked off the puck below the goal line by grown men.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,056 minutes
- Expected goals
- 41.4%
- 7th pct
- Shot attempts
- 42.4%
- 6th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 38 for, 67 against. Expected: 39.7 and 56.0.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 55 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 68 games
- Top speed
- 22.7 mph
- 76th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 1.50 a game
- Distance
- 3.37 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 87.0 mph
- 51st pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.5
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 1056 minutes at five-on-five
- Nick Foligno36%
- Ryan Donato21%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- CHI took 41.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 41.4% — 0.5 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- First line, 1,056 minutes at five-on-five — 66th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Kurashev | 40.9% | 42.8% | 41.4% |
| Kevin Korchinski | 37.9% | 43.7% | 42.0% |
| Nick Foligno | 40.7% | 41.8% | 45.1% |
40.9% together, 42.8% for him apart and 41.4% for Kurashev apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
295 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 23 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 27% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.