Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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96

Philipp Kurashev

Chicago Blackhawks Center

Fifty-four points beside Connor Bedard and minus-44 — the two halves of the same season.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21CHI548816-9122016512.313:05
2021-22CHI6761521-1612201867.012:51
2022-23CHI7091625-32140021167.817:25
2023-24CHI75183654-442360312814.119:01
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—2664175116-10161100739510.415:50

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Seventy-five games, 18 goals and 36 assists for 54 points with 6 on the power play, 19:01 a night, and minus-44. He took 41.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,110 minutes, the 6th percentile, and his ice went 34-69 against an expectation of 39.31-56.44.

Fifty-four points is more than double anything he had managed before, and it happened on Connor Bedard’s left wing. He is 25 and a career minus-101 in 266 games says the defensive half has never been settled.

The Finesse Game

He is the passer on the line rather than the finisher. Thirty-six assists is a genuine playmaking season and he reads a give-and-go a beat early, which is why the pairing worked.

One hundred and twenty-eight shots at a median of 30 feet with 33 per cent from inside 20, converted at 14.06 per cent — a career-best rate against a career 10.38, and a warning. Eighteen goals on that shot profile is a number that does not repeat by itself.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 190 and takes 23 penalty minutes in 75 games, which is a low rate and not a compliment here. He is not a factor along the wall and does not finish checks.

The defensive detail is the weakness and the minus-44 is not all bad luck: a share in the 10th percentile on the club’s most-used line is a shared failure and he is half of it.

The Intangibles

A fourth-round pick in 2018 out of Switzerland, five seasons in the organisation, and a career that turned the moment a generational centre arrived. That is a real skill — plenty of players cannot play with one — and it is also a dependency.

The club spent the summer buying wingers, which is the front office’s opinion of whether last season repeats.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    14:48 a game at five-on-five, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He is the passer on the line rather than the finisher.”

  • defensively-responsiblehe lacks it· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “The defensive detail is the weakness and the minus-44 is not all bad luck: a share in the 10th percentile on the club's most-used line is a shared failure and he is half of it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,110 minutes

Expected goals
41.1%
6th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
41.5%
4th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 69 against. Expected: 39.3 and 56.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
5th
Numbers
6th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 55 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 75 games

Top speed
23.1 mph
90th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
2.03 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.31 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.4 mph
92nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1110 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
CHI took 41.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 41.1% — 0.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,110 minutes at five-on-five — 73rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Connor Bedard40.9%41.4%42.8%
Nick Foligno40.3%41.6%45.9%
Kevin Korchinski38.7%42.6%41.7%

40.9% together, 41.4% for him apart and 42.8% for Bedard apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

195 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 25% from beyond forty.