Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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95

Ilya Mikheyev

Chicago Blackhawks Right Wing

Four penalty minutes in seventy-eight games — the second-lowest rate of any skater in this edition who played fifty.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20TOR3981523+74011988.215:35
2020-21TOR5471017+560021076.514:13
2021-22TOR53211132+162644414714.315:16
2022-23VAN46131528+321029114.316:55
2023-24VAN78112031+140011477.514:16
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—2706071131+3242551059010.215:06

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Seventy-eight games in Vancouver, 11 goals and 20 assists, none on the power play, 14:16 a night and plus-1. He took 54.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 974 minutes, the 83rd percentile, and his ice went 41-38 against an expectation of 39.89-33.73.

He converted 7.48 per cent of 147 shots against a career 10.17, which is the whole gap between a twenty-goal season and this one. The chances were there.

The Finesse Game

The skating is the game. He is among the faster forwards in the league in a straight line and he beats defencemen wide on the entry rather than passing to get past them.

One hundred and forty-seven shots at a median of 25 feet with 43 per cent from inside 20 — the chances arrive because he gets there, not because a linemate created them. Eleven goals on that profile is a poor return and 60 goals in 270 career games is the truer rate.

The Physical Game

He took 4 penalty minutes in 78 games, the second-lowest rate of any skater in this edition who played fifty, and 42 in 270 across his career. That is not restraint under provocation — it is a game played entirely in open ice, away from the walls and the front of the net.

He is 6-2 and 192 and does not finish checks or win pucks below the goal line. On a club that was 32nd in shot share, a winger who does not retrieve is a real cost.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, out of Omsk, who arrived in Toronto at 24 and has 131 points in 270 games since. Five career shorthanded goals in a fourteen-minute role is the mark of a penalty killer who is a genuine threat the other way.

Chicago signed speed and discipline. What it did not sign is a man who will win a puck back in the corner for Connor Bedard.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.05 penalty minutes a game over 78, 1st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “Five career shorthanded goals in a fourteen-minute role is the mark of a penalty killer who is a genuine threat the other way.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He is 6-2 and 192 and does not finish checks or win pucks below the goal line.”

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, out of Omsk, who arrived in Toronto at 24 and has 131 points in 270 games since.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 974 minutes

Expected goals
54.2%
83rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.9%
78th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 41 for, 38 against. Expected: 39.9 and 33.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
6th
Numbers
83rd

The numbers rank him 77 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 56 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 78 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
73rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.29 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.27 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.1 mph
52nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with VAN · 974 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
VAN took 52.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.2% — 1.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 974 minutes at five-on-five — 55th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Elias Pettersson54.2%54.2%52.9%
Filip Hronek51.0%56.3%51.6%
Quinn Hughes51.6%55.8%56.0%

54.2% together, 54.2% for him apart and 52.9% for Pettersson apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

198 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 43% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.