Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

3

Isaak Phillips

Chicago Blackhawks Defense

Thirty-three games at 22 and the third-lowest chance share of anybody in this edition.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22CHI4000-1400040.012:20
2022-23CHI16145-105000166.315:28
2023-24CHI33066-2622000310.017:04
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—5311011-3731000512.016:14

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Thirty-three games, no goals and 6 assists, 17:04 a night and minus-26. He took 35.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 507 minutes, the 0th percentile, and his ice went 11-37 against an expectation of 15.89-28.60.

A minus-26 in 33 games is a rate almost nobody in the league approaches, and the chance share underneath it says it was earned rather than suffered. Only two players in this edition with three hundred minutes had a worse share, and one of them is on the same blue line.

The Finesse Game

Thirty-one shots and none of them went in. One goal in 53 career games, at a median of 48 feet with 68 per cent from beyond 40.

Six assists in 33 games is a reasonable rate for a third-pair defenceman and the puck does leave his stick cleanly. Nothing about the offensive game is a reason he is in the league or a reason he would not be.

The Physical Game

He is 6-3 and 205 and engages willingly. Twenty-two penalty minutes in 33 games is a high rate and a fair amount of it is a stick arriving after a forward has already gone past.

The size is real and it is not yet used to clear a net front the way Connor Murphy uses his.

The Intangibles

A fifth-round pick in 2020 from Barrie, in his third partial season and still waiting for the run of games that settles the question. Minus-37 in 53 career games is a number that would end most careers and his club is bad enough that it will not end his.

There is a professional in here somewhere. Last season is not the evidence for it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • fouls-when-beatena strength· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “Twenty-two penalty minutes in 33 games is a high rate and a fair amount of it is a stick arriving after a forward has already gone past.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “The size is real and it is not yet used to clear a net front the way Connor Murphy uses his.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 507 minutes

Expected goals
35.7%
0th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
42.3%
5th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 11 for, 37 against. Expected: 15.9 and 28.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
0th
Numbers
0th

The two rank him within 0 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 47 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 33 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
54th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.94 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.33 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.0 mph
58th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 507 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
CHI took 41.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 35.7% — 6.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
507 minutes at five-on-five — 18th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Philipp Kurashev34.5%36.2%42.0%
Jarred Tinordi27.8%38.1%39.8%
MacKenzie Entwistle29.5%38.0%42.1%

34.5% together, 36.2% for him apart and 42.0% for Kurashev apart. Kurashev was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

53 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 0 of them goals. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 68% from beyond forty.