Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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3

Seth Jones

Chicago Blackhawks Defense

Played 25:29 a night on the worst possession club in the league and finished with a career minus-115 behind him.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14NSH7761925-23242021006.019:37
2014-15NSH8281927+3202101236.519:53
2015-16NSH/CBJ8132831-14221001571.922:05
2016-17CBJ75123042+6241031527.923:24
2017-18CBJ78164157+10307042496.424:36
2018-19CBJ7593746+1280041844.925:49
2019-20CBJ5662430+10202001264.825:17
2020-21CBJ5652328-18262011413.525:14
2021-22CHI7854651-37280001942.626:13
2022-23CHI72122537-38302011786.724:27
2023-24CHI6782331-15343041724.725:29
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—79790315405-1152862211917765.123:41

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Sixty-seven games, 8 goals and 23 assists, and 25:29 a night — the most on the club and the ninth season in a row he has played more than twenty-two minutes. He took 45.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,280 minutes, the 25th percentile, and his ice went 43-51 against an expectation of 47.58-56.52. The goals against arrived exactly as the chances said they would. The goals for came in fifteen under, which is the club’s whole season in one line and not a thing he can be asked to fix from the blue line.

He is minus-115 across 797 games and has never once played on a club that controlled play. That is a fact about employers as much as about the man, and it is worth stating before anything else on this page.

The Finesse Game

He carries the puck out of his own zone rather than passing it out, and at 6-4 with a long stride he is very hard to close down through the neutral zone. The exit is the most valuable thing he does and it is the reason a bad club plays him twenty-five minutes.

He walks the line and holds the puck until a forechecker commits, then moves it late — 315 career assists in 797 games, and 23 of them last season on a roster that could not finish. He took 172 shots at a median of 49 feet with 70 per cent from beyond 40, which is the point shot of a man whose job is to get it through rather than to score, and 8 went in.

The Physical Game

He defends with position and stick rather than force. Thirty-four penalty minutes in 67 games and 286 in 797 is a low rate for a defenceman who plays the hardest minutes on his club, and it comes from taking the right angle early rather than from restraint arriving late.

He is not a punishing man along the wall and does not clear his own crease by moving people out of it. On a club that was 30th in the league at suppressing chances, that shows.

The Intangibles

He was the fourth pick of the 2013 draft and has been asked to be the best defenceman on rebuilding clubs in Columbus and now Chicago for a decade. Twenty-five and a half minutes a night at 30, on a club that won twenty-three games, is a workload accepted without complaint.

The question the next two seasons will answer is whether he is a first pair defenceman on a good club or the man who plays the most on a bad one. Nothing in his record settles it, because nothing in his record has ever put him on a good one.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    45.7% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 40.2% for his club in the minutes he sat: +5.5, 95th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    19:06 a game at five-on-five, 92nd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He carries the puck out of his own zone rather than passing it out, and at 6-4 with a long stride he is very hard to close down through the neutral zone.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He walks the line and holds the puck until a forechecker commits, then moves it late — 315 career assists in 797 games, and 23 of them last season on a roster that could not finish.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is not a punishing man along the wall and does not clear his own crease by moving people out of it.”

  • defensively-responsiblepresent and ordinary· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He defends with position and stick rather than force.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,280 minutes

Expected goals
45.7%
25th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.9%
27th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 43 for, 51 against. Expected: 47.6 and 56.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
8th
Numbers
25th

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 67 games

Top speed
23.2 mph
96th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.97 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.51 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
98.0 mph
86th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1280 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
CHI took 41.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.7% — 3.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,280 minutes at five-on-five — 89th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alex Vlasic46.5%44.3%46.1%
Connor Bedard43.0%47.1%40.5%
Jason Dickinson52.9%43.1%42.8%

46.5% together, 44.3% for him apart and 46.1% for Vlasic apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

234 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 30 feet. 4% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 70% from beyond forty.