Carolina Hurricanes

What the Quant Says

266 goals, and 1st in the league in creating chances at even strength by a distance: 3.03 expected goals per 60, with the club in 2nd at 2.94. Carolina also led the league in shot-attempt share at 59.2 per cent and in chance share at 55.9. No team was close.

It scored 15.1 goals fewer than those chances were worth — 28th in the league in finishing. Sebastian Aho posted a 98th-percentile chance share and his on-ice goals came out 47-57 against an expected 54.7-40.1. Seth Jarvis was 99th percentile with 38-37 against an expected 46.3-30.6. Those two lines are 35 goals that did not happen.

Jarvis scored 32 anyway, with 5 shorthanded. Andrei Svechnikov had 20 and half of them came on the power play. The summer answer was Nikolaj Ehlers, 63 points in 69 games, and Logan Stankoven, who arrived at the deadline in the Rantanen trade.

What the Scout Says

Nobody here carries a line by himself and everybody arrives at the same places.

Aho releases quickly from the circle and takes what a shift offers rather than hunting a preferred spot, and he is one of the better faceoff centres in the league, which is why he takes the hard draws in every situation. Seth Jarvis is not the fastest man in a straight line and is among the first to every loose puck, and 46 per cent of his shots come from inside 20 feet. Nikolaj Ehlers is the fastest man on the roster and everything he does comes out of the half-second a defenceman needs to turn — and if the puck has to be won first, he is not the man who wins it, at 168 pounds.

Andrei Svechnikov has the heaviest release and the most physical presence of any forward here and scored 10 goals at five-on-five. Logan Stankoven is 5-8 and 165 pounds and forechecks and goes into corners as though he is not, and took 194 shots in fifteen minutes a night. Jackson Blake reads where a puck will be rather than racing anybody to it, and his release is quick enough to punish the half-second that buys.

Below them the club is heavy and precise. Jordan Staal takes away the middle better than anybody on the roster at 37. Jordan Martinook finishes every check and takes 18 penalty minutes a year doing it. Eric Robinson's straight-line speed is genuinely high-end and it is the whole of why an undrafted forechecker has a ten-year career. William Carrier forechecks with real violence and cannot stay healthy.

What the Quant Says

233 goals against and 12th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.40 per 60, which combined with the league-best attack is the shape of a genuinely dominant hockey team.

Jaccob Slavin took 8 penalty minutes across 80 games while playing the hardest defensive assignment in the league at 21:34 a night, and posted 55.2 per cent. Shayne Gostisbehere had the highest chance share of any skater in the NHL at 60.5 per cent — and his on-ice goals were 44-37 against an expected 52-34, so even the best share in hockey came with 6 goals conceded above what it earned. Jalen Chatfield was plus-22, the best on the club. Sean Walker posted 57.4 per cent and finished minus-7, with on-ice goals of 44-46 against an expected 59-44.

K'Andre Miller arrives from New York at 25 with exceptional skating for 6-5 and a reputation worse than his record. This organisation has made a habit of exactly that transaction.

What the Scout Says

One of the best defensive defencemen alive, an offensive specialist with the highest chance share in the league, and a pairing structure that makes both of them work.

Jaccob Slavin defends almost entirely without body contact: the stick takes pucks off attackers at the moment the play is about to break, he boxes out in front rather than hitting, and he is essentially never out of position badly enough to need to reach. 8 penalty minutes in 1,359 five-on-five minutes against the best forwards in hockey is the most remarkable statistical line in this edition.

Shayne Gostisbehere is the opposite in every respect — he walks the line, sees the seam, gets pucks through traffic, and at 5-11 and 183 cannot clear a crease, win a battle below the goal line, or avoid reaching when he is beaten, which is what 52 penalty minutes means. Jalen Chatfield plays far heavier than 6-1 and 209, blocks shots, defends his net front, and does nothing at all with the puck beyond keeping it alive at the line — which is exactly right beside an offensive partner.

K'Andre Miller is the summer's bet: genuinely fast for 6-5, able to close a gap most defencemen his size cannot, with a first pass that is inconsistent under pressure and an offensive return that has not grown in five seasons. Reduce the number of decisions he has to make and there is a top-four defenceman here.

What the Quant Says

Pyotr Kochetkov stopped .8968 in 47 games and Frederik Andersen .8993 in 22. The club's goaltending came in 13.5 goals worse than the chances faced, 25th in the league.

Read that against the defence in front of it. Carolina was 11th at suppressing chances and 1st at creating them, and a .897 behind that is a far worse result than the same number behind a bad club — there are fewer shots and the ones that arrive are the difficult ones. This is the entire difference between the season the underlying numbers describe and the one that happened.

Andersen has played more than 34 games once in four seasons here. Kochetkov has never posted a league-average save percentage in four. The club has been the best possession team in hockey for three years and has lost three conference finals.

What the Scout Says

The one position the structure does not fix, and the reason for three conference finals and no Cup.

Pyotr Kochetkov is athletic and unstructured — he moves a great deal, he is quick, and he makes spectacular saves out of positions he should not have been in. The technique is the problem: square less often than a 6-3 goaltender should be, depth in the crease varying shift to shift, and poor rebound control that puts him in the scrambles his athleticism then has to solve. Behind a club that concedes few chances, the goals that go in tend to be ones he made work for himself. He competes ferociously and it occasionally works against him — a goaltender who fights every puck in a low-event game eventually loses one.

Frederik Andersen is the opposite and it suits the club far better: large, still, positionally exact, reliant on being in the right place rather than on getting there, which behind a low-event team is extremely efficient. What has thinned at 36 is the recovery — beaten laterally, he no longer reaches the second puck — and he has played more than 34 games once in four seasons. The temperament has never wavered and he returns from long absences playing well immediately, which is most of why the club keeps re-signing him.

What the Quant Says

12th at 7.51 expected goals per 60, over 5:13 a night — the 4th-most time in the league. Above average and well short of what the personnel implies.

Svechnikov scored 10 power-play goals, half his season's total, Jarvis 7, Ehlers 6 on his previous club, Aho 5, Gostisbehere 4. Gostisbehere is the best power-play defenceman on the roster by a wide margin and 38 assists says so. The unit is the one phase where this club's problem is not luck: it takes the 4th-most time in hockey and converts at a 12th-best rate.

What the Scout Says

Well staffed and slightly under-productive, and the personnel is not the reason.

Shayne Gostisbehere is the best power-play defenceman on the roster by a distance: he walks the line, gets pucks through traffic to the net, and 38 assists on a club that finished 28th in finishing is a genuine total. Andrei Svechnikov is the finisher — 10 of his 20 goals came here, from the net front and the inside lane where his size and heavy release are worth most.

Sebastian Aho runs it from the half-wall with the patience the arrangement needs, and Seth Jarvis is the second shooting threat and the man who gets to the top of the crease. Nikolaj Ehlers arrives as the entry specialist, which is the one thing this unit has genuinely lacked — it takes the 4th-most time in the league and has spent too much of it establishing possession rather than using it.

What the Quant Says

3rd in the league at 6.37 expected goals against per 60, over 4:52 a game. The best phase on the roster and one of the best units in hockey.

Slavin and Chatfield are the pairing, and Slavin's stick is the reason a unit can defend without taking penalties — 8 minutes across 80 games is the number that makes the whole structure work. Jordan Staal wins the draws that start it and takes away the middle better than anybody on the roster at 37. Jarvis and Aho contributed 8 shorthanded goals between them.

What the Scout Says

Third in the league, and built on the one skill that costs nothing.

Jaccob Slavin's stick removes pucks without contact, which means a kill can be aggressive without spending time back on the kill — the 8 penalty minutes in 80 games are not a curiosity, they are the mechanism. Jalen Chatfield blocks shots and clears the net front beside him, at the cost of 54 penalty minutes of his own.

Jordan Staal wins the draw that starts it and takes away the middle of the ice better than anyone on the roster at 37, which is why a man with ordinary feet is still winning these minutes. Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho scored 8 shorthanded goals between them, which is the same speed-and-anticipation profile that makes them dangerous at five-on-five turned against a careless breakout. Jordan Martinook supplies the pressure. There is no weak point in the rotation.