Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

18

Jack Drury

Colorado Avalanche Center

A 54.9 per cent chance share in a fourth-line role, which is the sort of number that gets a man promoted.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22CAR2202+32000633.315:58
2022-23CAR38268+314001692.910:47
2023-24CAR7481927+4332001067.512:17
2024-25CAR/COL7281018+122102938.612:55
2025-26 so far
Career186203555+11713032747.312:16

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

8 goals and 10 assists in 72 games for 18 points between Carolina and Colorado, plus-1, on 12:55 a night.

54.9 per cent at five-on-five, the 90th percentile, and on-ice goals of 34-22 against an expected 31-25. In the fewest minutes of any forward who played a full season here, he had the second-best chance share on the club.

The Finesse Game

A centre who wins the puck rather than one who does anything ornamental with it. The skating is quick in short bursts, the reads on the forecheck are the best part of the game, and he gets to loose pucks a step before the man he is racing.

The offence is real but small. 93 shots from a median of 30 feet, spread evenly between the interior and the point — he shoots when the shot is there and does not manufacture one. 18 points is a fair reflection of the finishing.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 186, and he plays bigger than that on the forecheck, where he is willing to take a hit to make the first man commit. He is not a hitter and does not need to be.

22 penalty minutes over 72 games. The body has held up — three straight seasons above 70.

The Intangibles

The other man in the Rantanen trade, and the one Colorado may end up more pleased with per dollar. He arrived and immediately took the defensive-zone draws.

At 25 there is a real question whether the chance share is him or the linemates, and the honest answer is that it followed him from Carolina, which is the club that most reliably makes ordinary players look like this. Colorado is betting it is him. He has one more season to prove it before the price goes up.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 731 minutes

Expected goals
54.9%
91st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
58.2%
97th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 22 against. Expected: 30.6 and 25.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
91st

The numbers rank him 38 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 156 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 with CAR · 415 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
COL took 53.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.9% — 1.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 731 minutes at five-on-five — 31st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jackson Blake59.4%52.7%60.1%
Sean Walker56.9%54.3%57.4%
Ross Colton55.2%54.9%54.7%

59.4% together, 52.7% for him apart and 60.1% for Blake apart. He was worse away from Blake, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Blake did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

150 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 27% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 29% from beyond forty.