This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Seth Jarvis
Carolina Hurricanes Right Wing
32 goals, 5 shorthanded, and a 58.7 per cent chance share whose on-ice goals came out 28-33.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | CAR | 68 | 17 | 23 | 40 | +11 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 110 | 15.4 | 13:53 |
| 2022-23 | CAR | 82 | 14 | 25 | 39 | +10 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 7.5 | 16:12 |
| 2023-24 | CAR | 81 | 33 | 34 | 67 | +23 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 176 | 18.8 | 18:45 |
| 2024-25 | CAR | 73 | 32 | 35 | 67 | +12 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 204 | 15.7 | 19:21 |
| 2025-26 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 304 | 96 | 117 | 213 | +56 | 60 | 22 | 8 | 15 | 677 | 14.2 | 17:07 |
This Season So Far
The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
32 goals and 35 assists in 73 games for 67 points, plus-12, on 19:21 a night with 5 shorthanded goals.
58.7 per cent at five-on-five, the 99th percentile. His on-ice goals were 28-33 against an expected 44.4-31.3 — 16 goals of finishing and goaltending vanishing from a line that was outplaying everybody it faced. 46 per cent of his shots came from inside 20 feet.
The Finesse Game
Quick everywhere. He is not the fastest man in the league in a straight line but he is among the first to every loose puck, and the hands work at that pace — which is what turns a forecheck into a scoring chance rather than a possession.
15.7 per cent shooting from a median of 23 feet is a supportable rate: he only shoots from inside. The playmaking has grown into a genuine second half of the game, and 5 shorthanded goals is the most direct evidence of how dangerous the speed is when the other club is careless.
The Physical Game
5-10 and 180, and he plays a hard game for it. He forechecks with force, goes into corners against defencemen, and gets to the net front where the punishment is.
16 penalty minutes over 73 games is remarkably disciplined for a player who spends that much time in traffic. The size is the only reason to worry, and the body has held up so far.
The Intangibles
A first-round pick who signed a long contract early and has improved in every season of it.
At 23 with a 99th-percentile chance share and 32 goals, he is on the short list of the league’s most valuable wingers relative to what he costs. The one thing his record does not yet contain is a goal in a series that mattered, and the club has now lost three conference finals.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 926 minutes
- Expected goals
- 58.7%
- 99th pct
- Shot attempts
- 59.3%
- 98th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 28 for, 33 against. Expected: 44.4 and 31.3.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 85 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2024-25 · 926 minutes at five-on-five
- Jordan Staal31%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2024-25
- The club
- CAR took 55.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 58.7% — 2.8 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- Second line, 926 minutes at five-on-five — 49th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | 59.4% | 57.5% | 57.5% |
| Jaccob Slavin | 57.9% | 59.4% | 53.9% |
| Brent Burns | 58.7% | 58.7% | 51.5% |
59.4% together, 57.5% for him apart and 57.5% for Aho apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
309 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 31 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 47% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.