Carolina Hurricanes

What the Quant Says

278 goals, 9th in the league, off 3.166 expected goals per 60 at even strength — 2nd in hockey.

At five-on-five it scored 193 against an expectation of 198.0. Five goals of finishing lost, 25th in the league. On a club this good at creating chances, that is the one thing worth being irritated about.

Sebastian Aho had 37 goals and 81 points at 16.7 per cent shooting — the 90th percentile — with 63 per cent of his attempts from inside the slot, the 87th. Andrei Svechnikov had 30 goals and 69 points at twenty-two, off 11.10 shots per 60, the 95th percentile. Teuvo Teravainen had 65 points with 48 per cent of them on the power play — the 99th percentile.

Seth Jarvis had 17 goals and 40 points in a rookie season at twenty, with 66 per cent of his shots from inside the slot at a median of 18 feet. Jordan Staal took 68 per cent of his from the slot, the 96th percentile, at 6-4.

Martin Necas has the fifth-highest top speed of any forward in this book at 24.0 mph — and took 31 per cent of his shots from the slot, the 2nd percentile. Forty points is what that contradiction produces.

Max Pacioretty arrives with 19 goals in 39 games and an Achilles tendon he tore in August. Paul Stastny arrives with 21 goals at thirty-six, taken from a median of 14 feet off a 77.4 mph release that only three forwards in this book went below.

What the Scout Says

Aho is the player and the shot chart is why: 63 per cent from inside the slot at a median of 20 feet, and a takeaway rate at the 98th percentile that means the puck arrives on his stick more than it should. He kills penalties on the best unit in the league and has no physical game at all.

Svechnikov is the opposite build — 6-3, hits at the 83rd percentile from a top-six role, skates at the 96th — and he carries into traffic and holds, and at twenty-two the decisions have not caught up with the hands. The penalties are the cost and they are considerable.

Jarvis is 5-10 and goes where a twenty-year-old is not supposed to want to go. The shot is soft and from eighteen feet that barely matters.

Teravainen waits for a passing lane and is worth half of what he is worth on the power play. Necas beats a defenceman wide from a standing start and shoots from 34 feet. Staal scores from nineteen feet at 6-4 and hits at the 88th percentile at thirty-three. Stastny scores from fourteen feet because he can no longer shoot from anywhere else.

What the Quant Says

202 goals against — fewest in the league — off 2.568 expected goals against per 60 at even strength, 11th.

At five-on-five it conceded 142 against an expectation of 160.7. Nineteen goals better than the chances, which is the goaltending, and the chances were already good.

Jaccob Slavin took 57.3 per cent of the expected goals across 1,434 minutes, the 95th percentile, finished plus-35, and recorded 1.61 hits per 60 — the 8th percentile at his position. Brett Pesce took 52.2 per cent with 1.54 hits per 60, the 7th percentile, and 1.15 giveaways, the 10th.

Carolina's two best defencemen defend almost entirely without contact. Both are 6-3, both take the puck rather than the man — Slavin at the 98th percentile in takeaways and Pesce at the 94th — and between them they play nearly fifty minutes a night on the club that conceded fewest goals in hockey.

Brady Skjei finished plus-22 with 1.54 even-strength points per 60, the 92nd percentile among defencemen, and none of his 39 points on the power play. He also blocked 2.53 shots per 60 — the 3rd percentile.

Brent Burns arrives at thirty-seven having played 26:09 a night, the 99th percentile, and covered 3.73 miles a game — the most of any skater in this book. His chance share in San Jose was 46.8 per cent, the 29th percentile, and 1.54 hits per 60 puts him at the 7th.

What the Scout Says

Slavin and Pesce are the identity of this hockey club. Both 6-3, both long, both taking the puck rather than the man, and both recording hit rates in the bottom tenth of the position while playing on the team that conceded fewest goals in the league. Slavin took ten penalty minutes in 79 games.

Skjei activates, shoots at the 88th percentile among defencemen, produces at the 92nd at even strength, and blocks at the 3rd — a first-pair defenceman in New York who has been better as a second-pair one here.

Burns is the arrival and he is a different animal: 26 minutes a night at thirty-six, more ground covered than any skater in this book, 550 career assists, and 1.54 hits per 60. He has never defended with his body and is not starting now, which on this blue line is affordable.

De Haan blocks and holds a gap and is slow. Coghlan has a 97.6 mph shot he takes from 52 feet and was acquired for nothing.

What the Quant Says

Carolina's goaltending came in 18.7 goals ahead of the chances it faced, 4th in the league.

Frederik Andersen went 35-14-3 with a .9224 and a 2.17 in 52 games, facing 1,431 shots — 27 a night — with 4 shutouts. One season earlier he had posted an .8951 in Toronto.

Antti Raanta went 15-5-4 with a .9122 and a 2.45 in 28 games, with 2 shutouts on 706 shots. His career line across 226 games is a .9187, better than either man managed here, built mostly in Arizona behind considerably worse teams.

Twenty-seven shots a night behind the best penalty kill in hockey and the 3rd-best chance share is the friendliest crease in the conference, and the 18.7 says both goaltenders were better than it anyway.

Pyotr Kochetkov played 3 games. Alex Lyon played 2 and has gone to Florida, and Jack LaFontaine 2 and is gone.

Andersen and Raanta are both 33 and both unrestricted free agents in July. Kochetkov, with three NHL games, is the only goaltender in the organisation signed beyond this season — which makes the crease the single unresolved thing about a club that is otherwise finished.

What the Scout Says

Andersen takes away the net by filling it and staying square rather than by reaching — an economical, upright goaltender who does not scramble, which makes the rebound control workable behind ordinary lateral quickness.

Raanta is the opposite: 6-0, and he challenges early and plays well outside his crease, which is how a small goaltender takes away a net. The cost of that style is the recovery across, and the cost of a career of it is a body that has never let him play more than 47 games in a season.

Both are 33. Both are free agents in July. Behind them is a twenty-three-year-old with three NHL games, and that is the whole of the succession plan at the position on a club that has otherwise thought of everything.

What the Quant Says

7th in the league at 7.029 expected goals per 60, over 4:27 a night.

Sebastian Aho scored 13 power-play goals, Andrei Svechnikov 9 and Teuvo Teravainen 9, with Brent Burns 4 in San Jose, Paul Stastny 4 in Winnipeg, Ondrej Kase 4 in Toronto and Max Pacioretty 4 in Vegas.

48 per cent of Teravainen's points came on the power play, the 99th percentile among forwards, and 35 per cent of Aho's, the 89th. Take the man advantage away and Teravainen's even-strength rate is the 53rd percentile — the unit is a very large share of what he is worth.

Tony DeAngelo ran the point and has gone to Philadelphia, which is the one genuine hole on this roster: Brent Burns arrives with 2:40 a night of power play and 33 per cent of his points on it, and Burns is a different sort of quarterback — a shooter from 54 feet rather than a walker of the line.

Jaccob Slavin took 1:22 a night of it and scored one goal. Brady Skjei took twelve seconds and scored none. Carolina's power play depends on Burns arriving intact at thirty-seven.

What the Scout Says

Aho in the slot, Svechnikov shooting, Teravainen waiting for the lane, and a hole at the point where Tony DeAngelo used to stand.

Teravainen is the unit's engine and half his production comes from it — the vision is genuinely high-end and it needs the extra second the man advantage provides.

Burns is the replacement and he is not a like-for-like one. He shoots from 54 feet with 7 per cent of his attempts from inside the slot; DeAngelo walked the line. Whether Carolina's power play is 9th again depends on whether it can be built around a shot from distance and a net-front presence it does not obviously have.

Jarvis and Staal are the two men on the roster who live in the blue paint, and neither took two minutes a night of power play last season.

What the Quant Says

1st in the league at 4.776 expected goals against per 60 — the best penalty kill in hockey — over 5:53 a night, which is the most shorthanded time of any club. No other team was on the kill that often and nobody was close to as good at it.

Jaccob Slavin killed 3:14 a night, the 99th percentile among defencemen, with 2.39 takeaways per 60 at the 98th and 0.16 penalties taken per 60 at the 2nd. Brett Pesce killed 2:48, the 92nd. Brent Burns arrives having killed 2:43 in San Jose, the 88th.

Jordan Staal killed 2:13 a night, the 96th percentile among forwards, and Sebastian Aho 1:54, the 89th — a club that puts its best centre and its captain on the unit rather than protecting them from it.

Teuvo Teravainen killed 1:35 with 2 shorthanded goals, from a winger who records 0.66 hits per 60 — the 3rd percentile.

The reason it is needed so often is Andrei Svechnikov, who takes 1.69 penalties per 60 at the 94th percentile and finished minus-0.45 on drawn against taken. A club that killed penalties this well could afford him. Very few could.

What the Scout Says

The best in the league, and it is not close, and it is asked to work more often than anybody's.

Slavin is the reason. Three minutes and fourteen seconds a night, a stick in every lane, and sixteen penalty minutes' worth of fouling across a season. Pesce is the same player from the right side. Burns arrives as a third option who killed nearly three minutes a night in San Jose.

Staal and Aho take the forward work, which is the tell: this is a club that puts its best centre and its captain on the kill rather than resting them through it. Teravainen kills 1:35 without ever hitting anybody. Martinook and Fast are the fourth-line pair, both quick, both early.

What keeps it busy is Svechnikov, and a club that kills this well is one of the very few that can carry him.