Carolina Hurricanes

What the Quant Says

266 goals, 15th in the league, from the club that took 60.4 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five and 58.9 per cent of the expected goals — both the highest figures in hockey.

Carolina created 3.032 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 3rd in the league.

At five-on-five it scored 174 goals against an expectation of 192.3 — a shortfall of 18.3, 31st in the league. Only Pittsburgh finished worse. This club generated chances at the third-best rate in hockey and converted them at the second-worst.

Sebastian Aho scored 36 goals and had 67 points in 75 games at 16.5 per cent. Martin Necas had 28 and 71, thirty points more than he had ever managed. Brent Burns had 18 goals and 61 points at 38, in all 82 games. Andrei Svechnikov had 23 and 55 in 64 before a knee ended his season, and Brady Skjei scored 18 from the blue line against a previous career high of 9.

Michael Bunting arrives from Toronto with 23 goals and 103 penalty minutes, 19 of the goals from inside 20 feet.

What the Scout Says

Three men who score from the paint, and one who scores from range.

Sebastian Aho is 6-0 and 189 and had 36 goals and 67 points in 75 games, with 50 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet. He is the best player on the club and has been for six years, and the 84 in hockey sense is the highest forward grade in this chapter.

Martin Necas is 6-3 and 195 and was twelfth overall in 2017, five seasons of waiting followed by 71 points at 24. He is the only man on the club who scores from range, and the tracking says why: 3.5 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the 98th percentile, with the speed to arrive before the lane closes.

Andrei Svechnikov is 6-3 and 200 and had his best season, ended eighteen games early by a knee. Seth Jarvis is 5-10 and takes 56 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet at 21. Jesper Fast takes 64 per cent from in there, the highest share on a club built to get there.

Michael Bunting arrives at 6-0 and 186 with 103 penalty minutes and 55 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet — a shot chart and a temperament, and both are what this club has been missing. Stefan Noesen scored 13 goals and every one of them came from inside 20 feet. Jordan Staal is 6-4 and 35 and scored 17.

What the Quant Says

Carolina allowed 2.113 expected goals per 60 at even strength — the best rate in the league — and conceded 213 goals, 2nd.

The gap between Carolina and the second-best club at suppressing chances is 0.255 expected goals per 60. Measured down from Los Angeles, that same gap reaches the thirteenth-best defence in the league. Nobody else was in the argument.

At five-on-five it conceded 139 goals against an expectation of 134.2, and the goaltending came in 4.8 goals worse than the chances it faced, 17th in the league.

Six of the eleven highest five-on-five chance shares among the 525 skaters in this book were recorded in a Carolina uniform: Stefan Noesen at 63.6 per cent, Calvin de Haan at 60.5, Jalen Chatfield at 60.4, Andrei Svechnikov at 60.4, Brent Burns at 59.9 and Jaccob Slavin at 59.8. De Haan has gone to Tampa Bay.

Jaccob Slavin took 8 penalty minutes in 76 games at 22:00 a night. Brett Pesce played all 82 at 22:01 and took 83 per cent of his shots from beyond 40 feet, scoring 2 goals on 114 shots from out there.

Dmitry Orlov arrives from Boston with 709 career games and a career plus-114, and Tony DeAngelo returns from Philadelphia with 42 points and a minus-27.

What the Scout Says

The quietest excellent blue line in the league, and a thirty-eight-year-old who has not missed a game in nine seasons.

Jaccob Slavin is 6-3 and 207 and took 8 penalty minutes in 76 games at 22 minutes a night. He does not shoot, does not hit, does not take penalties and does not get scored on; the system asks its defencemen to hold a line and move the puck, and he is the man it was designed around. The 86 in hockey sense is the highest defensive grade in this chapter.

Brent Burns is 6-5 and 228 and played all 82 games at 23:13 at 38, with 1,333 career games and 838 points. He is the reason a thirty-eight-year-old is worth a chapter: not because the production held, but because the workload did.

Brett Pesce has eight seasons in one organisation on the right side of a top pair against the other club's best. Brady Skjei is 6-3 and scored 18 goals, twelve of them from inside 40 feet, which is the number the market will misread.

Dmitry Orlov arrives at 5-11 and 215 with a 101.6 mph shot at the 99th percentile and a career plus-114 over eleven seasons in one organisation. Tony DeAngelo returns after a season in which his ice conceded 57 goals; Carolina's structure is the strongest argument for him, and that is a bet rather than a conclusion. Jalen Chatfield is undrafted and held a 60.4 per cent chance share on the third pair.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 4.8 goals worse than the chances it faced, 17th in the league — the middle of the league, behind the best defence in it.

Frederik Andersen went 21-11-1 with a .9034 and a 2.48 in 34 games, facing 849 shots. His career line across 479 games is a .9153.

Antti Raanta went 19-3-3 with a .9099 and a 2.23 in 27 games with 4 shutouts, facing 644. His career line across 253 games is a .9178 — the best figure in the crease.

Pyotr Kochetkov went 12-7-5 with a .9091 and a 2.44 in 24 games at 24, also with 4 shutouts, facing 627.

Three goaltenders, none of whom played 35 games, and a combined record of 52-21-9. The save percentages are ordinary and the goals-against averages are excellent, which is what happens behind a defence that concedes a quarter of a goal a game fewer than anybody else's.

What the Scout Says

Three goaltenders, none of them a starter, behind the best defence in the league.

Frederik Andersen is 6-4 and 229 and went 21-11-1 with a .9034 in 34 games. He is very large, plays deep and square, and has 479 NHL games and a career .9153 behind him. The save percentage was the worst of his Carolina tenure and the goals-against average was 2.48, which is the shape of a season played behind this defence.

Antti Raanta is 6-0 and 195, undrafted, and went 19-3-3 with a .9099 and four shutouts. He is the smallest goaltender in this chapter and the most positionally exact; a career .9178 across 253 games is the best figure in the crease and the reason he keeps getting work at 34.

Pyotr Kochetkov is 6-3 and 196 and had four shutouts in 24 games at 24 — the only Carolina goaltender under thirty and the only one under contract past this season. He handles the puck better than either of the men above him.

Three goaltenders sharing 85 starts is not an accident; it is how this club has chosen to run the position. The defence in front of them concedes less than anybody else's, and none of the three has ever had to prove he could carry a season.

What the Quant Says

18th in the league at 6.827 expected goals per 60, over 5:11 a night, 9th in power-play time. Ordinary rate, plenty of ice, on the club that led the league in everything at even strength.

Martin Necas scored 9 power-play goals, Sebastian Aho 7, Stefan Noesen 7, Andrei Svechnikov 5, Teuvo Teravainen 5, Brent Burns 4, Brady Skjei 4, Jesperi Kotkaniemi 3 and Brett Pesce 1. Michael Bunting scored 7 elsewhere, Tony DeAngelo 4 and Dmitry Orlov 1.

Brent Burns has 84 career power-play goals in 1,333 games, the most on the roster, and Sebastian Aho 52 in 520. Jordan Staal has 46 in 1,173, Teuvo Teravainen 38 in 594, Andrei Svechnikov 24 in 347 and Martin Necas 20 in 285.

Eighteenth by rate is the one department where this club was not remarkable at either end. On a team that took 60 per cent of the attempts at five-on-five, the power play was where the advantage stopped mattering.

What the Scout Says

Eighteenth by rate, on the club that was first at everything else.

Brent Burns has 84 career power-play goals in 1,333 games and takes the point at 6-5 with a 100.0 mph shot, the 97th percentile. Sebastian Aho has 52 in 520 games and works the left circle.

Stefan Noesen scored 7 power-play goals in 12 minutes a night, and 68 per cent of his shots come from inside 20 feet — he is the net-front man and he does nothing else. Martin Necas scored 9, the most on the club, from the perimeter.

Teuvo Teravainen has 38 career power-play goals in 594 games and Jordan Staal 46 in 1,173. Michael Bunting arrives with 12 in 187 and a habit of standing where goaltenders would rather he did not.

The personnel is fine and the rate is eighteenth. On a club whose problem is the last ten feet, that is the same problem in a different situation.

What the Quant Says

5th in the league at 6.136 expected goals against per 60, over 5:12 a night, 12th in shorthanded time.

Sebastian Aho scored 3 shorthanded goals, Teuvo Teravainen 2, Jordan Staal 1, Seth Jarvis 1, Jordan Martinook 1, Brady Skjei 1, Jalen Chatfield 1 and Jesperi Kotkaniemi 1. Eleven shorthanded goals from eight men.

Jordan Staal has 18 career shorthanded goals in 1,173 games, the most on the roster, and Sebastian Aho 16 in 520 — the highest rate of anybody here. Teuvo Teravainen has 6 in 594 and Jordan Martinook 4 in 559.

Jaccob Slavin has 78 penalty minutes in 584 career games, which is a defenceman who has spent eight seasons killing penalties without taking them.

Sixth by rate and eleven shorthanded goals. Carolina attacks on the kill the way it attacks everywhere else, and the personnel that does it is unchanged.

What the Scout Says

Sixth in the league, eleven shorthanded goals, and a captain with eighteen of them in his career.

Jordan Staal is 6-4 and 220 and has 18 career shorthanded goals in 1,173 games. He has been a shutdown centre for seventeen years and the kill is built around him taking the draw.

Sebastian Aho has 16 career shorthanded goals in 520 games, which is the highest rate on the roster by a distance, and scored 3. Teuvo Teravainen has 6 in 594 and Jordan Martinook 4 in 559.

Jaccob Slavin has 78 penalty minutes in 584 games and Brett Pesce 207 in 557. Neither of them takes one, and both of them kill.

Michael Bunting arrives with 197 penalty minutes in 187 games, which on a club that killed at the fifth-best rate in the league is a cost as well as an asset.