This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Carolina Hurricanes Center
33 points and a 55.2 per cent chance share, on the seventh year of a contract nobody has stopped talking about.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | MTL | 79 | 11 | 23 | 34 | +1 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 134 | 8.2 | 13:44 |
| 2019-20 | MTL | 36 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 10.9 | 13:00 |
| 2020-21 | MTL | 56 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 87 | 5.8 | 14:48 |
| 2021-22 | CAR | 66 | 12 | 17 | 29 | +3 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 81 | 14.8 | 12:01 |
| 2022-23 | CAR | 82 | 18 | 25 | 43 | +10 | 50 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 129 | 14.0 | 14:44 |
| 2023-24 | CAR | 79 | 12 | 15 | 27 | -4 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 128 | 9.4 | 12:59 |
| 2024-25 | CAR | 78 | 12 | 21 | 33 | +9 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 115 | 10.4 | 14:04 |
| 2025-26 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 476 | 76 | 118 | 194 | +7 | 234 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 729 | 10.4 | 13:40 |
This Season So Far
The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
12 goals and 21 assists in 78 games for 33 points, plus-9, on 14:04 a night.
55.2 per cent at five-on-five, the 91st percentile, with on-ice goals of 51-46 against an expected 48-39. A third-line centre’s production on a third line that controlled play, which is the honest description.
The Finesse Game
Better hands than the point totals suggest and a genuinely useful puck-protection game — he holds it below the goal line and buys time for a winger. 42 per cent of his shots come from inside 20 feet.
The finishing has never arrived. 10.4 per cent on 115 shots is close to his career rate and 12 goals is where he has settled. He was drafted 3rd overall as a scorer and has become a defensive centre who can handle a puck, which is a useful player and not that one.
The Physical Game
6-3 and 212, and he uses it properly. He is difficult to move off pucks, wins his share on the wall, and forechecks with weight.
50 penalty minutes over 78 games is a high rate for a third-line centre and the one genuine complaint about his season.
The Intangibles
The most scrutinised contract in the league for four years, and he has spent that time quietly becoming a good third-line centre.
That is the fair verdict at 25: a useful player being paid as though he were more, on a club deep enough at centre that it does not matter. The 3rd overall pick is not coming.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 992 minutes
- Expected goals
- 55.2%
- 92nd pct
- Shot attempts
- 57.6%
- 96th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 51 for, 46 against. Expected: 47.8 and 38.8.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 28 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2024-25 · 992 minutes at five-on-five
- Taylor Hall23%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2024-25
- The club
- CAR took 55.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.2% — 0.7 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Third line, 992 minutes at five-on-five — 59th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Necas | 52.7% | 57.3% | 56.3% |
| Sean Walker | 57.6% | 53.4% | 57.2% |
| Eric Robinson | 57.4% | 53.6% | 56.5% |
52.7% together, 57.3% for him apart and 56.3% for Necas apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
152 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 43% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.