This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Jackson Blake
Carolina Hurricanes Right Wing
17 goals as a rookie and a 59.9 per cent chance share — the 99th percentile, and the best number on the best possession team in hockey.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 15:18 |
| 2024-25 | CAR | 80 | 17 | 17 | 34 | +10 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 142 | 12.0 | 13:51 |
| 2025-26 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 81 | 17 | 17 | 34 | +8 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 144 | 11.8 | 13:52 |
This Season So Far
The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
17 goals and 17 assists in 80 games for 34 points, plus-10, on 13:51 a night in his first NHL season, with 6 game-winners.
59.9 per cent at five-on-five, the 99th percentile among all skaters, in a bottom-six role. 62 per cent of his shots came from inside 20 feet from a median of 15 — the most extreme interior shot profile on this roster, and among the most extreme in the edition.
The Finesse Game
A small, quick winger who has already worked out that the only shots worth taking are the close ones. He gets to the interior by reading where a puck will be rather than by racing anybody to it, and the release is quick enough to punish the half-second that buys him.
12 per cent conversion on 142 shots is a fair rookie rate and should improve given the locations. The passing is good and not yet a weapon; 17 assists in 80 games understates what he sees.
The Physical Game
5-11 and 185, and light. He is willing on the forecheck without being able to win a puck by force, and he is separated from possession by NHL defencemen more often than he would like.
30 penalty minutes over 80 games. The strength is the ordinary next step and the frame will carry it.
The Intangibles
A fourth-round pick out of North Dakota, a rookie season of 80 games at 22, and the best underlying numbers on a club that led the league in them.
The caution is that this system produces flattering shares for everybody, and 99th percentile is high even here. The projection is a genuine top-six winger, and the interior shot chart is the reason to believe it rather than the goal total.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 878 minutes
- Expected goals
- 59.9%
- 99th pct
- Shot attempts
- 61.1%
- 100th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 35 against. Expected: 42.8 and 28.7.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 21 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 315 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 78 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2024-25 · 878 minutes at five-on-five
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2024-25
- The club
- CAR took 55.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.9% — 4.0 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- Fourth line, 878 minutes at five-on-five — 42nd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho | 62.5% | 58.3% | 56.7% |
| Sean Walker | 62.4% | 58.5% | 55.7% |
| Jaccob Slavin | 57.2% | 61.2% | 54.7% |
62.5% together, 58.3% for him apart and 56.7% for Aho apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
205 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 17 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 62% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.