Carolina Hurricanes

Metropolitan Division, Eastern Conference · 21 reports in the 2024-25 edition.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read, written from that season alone. Read the 2026-27 club page →

The club

2023-24 · 82 games · 250 for, 209 against

How it played

Shot attempts share, five-on-five: 59.6% 1st of 32
Expected goals share, five-on-five: 56.6% 2nd of 32
Power play expected goals per sixty: 7.86 7th of 32
Penalty kill expected goals allowed per sixty: 6.16 2nd of 32

Where the record lies

Finishing goals scored above what the chances were worth: -23.2 32nd of 32
Goaltending goals prevented beyond what the chances allowed were worth: +1.6 14th of 32

Carolina Hurricanes scored 23.2 fewer goals than their chances were worth — 23 goals of the record that the underlying play does not explain, and it regresses.

Roster shape

Points-weighted, so these are the ages and origins of the production rather than of the sweaters.

Average age: 28.0; weighted by points
From 33 and up: 11.3%; of skater points
From under 26: 36.0%; of skater points
Homegrown: 50.4%; drafted by this club
Continuity: 96.6%; of last season's five-on-five minutes

The read

the numbers, and the eye

First in the league in shot attempts by almost four points, first in chance suppression, second on the penalty kill — and dead last in finishing, by twenty-three goals.

Who this names 18 of 21 on the roster · 94% of their five-on-five minutes details

Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it: in full always, by surname only when one man in the edition wears it. Nothing here says who ought to be named — only who was, so the weighting can be seen rather than guessed at.

Not named here: Frederik Andersen, Jalen Chatfield, Spencer Martin.

What the Quant Says

111 points, 52-23-7, and third in the league. A five-game win over the Islanders and a six-game loss to the Rangers.

The club took 59.6 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five. That is first in the league by 3.9 points over Florida, and it is the largest margin of any category in this edition. It was also 2nd at creating chances, 1st at suppressing them and 2nd on the penalty kill.

And it scored 169 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 192.2 — twenty-three goals short, the worst finishing in the league.

Sit with the shape of that. A club can be the best process team in hockey and finish third, and the gap is not bad luck in any casual sense — it is a system that produces an enormous number of attempts from further out than average, which is why 59.6 per cent of the attempts converts to only 56.6 per cent of the expected goals, and then the finishing failed on top of that.

The direction of the correction is favourable. Finishing regresses harder than anything else on this page, and a club that is first at suppressing chances with average goaltending has two places to gain and none obvious to lose.

The summer was the largest subtraction of any club in this edition. Brett Pesce and Stefan Noesen went to New Jersey, Brady Skjei to Nashville, Teuvo Teravainen to Chicago, Michael Bunting to Pittsburgh, and Jesper Fast and Antti Raanta are off the roster. That is two top-four defencemen and three top-nine forwards in one off-season.

In came Shayne Gostisbehere from Detroit, Sean Walker from Colorado, Jack Roslovic from the Rangers, William Carrier from Vegas, and Eric Robinson and Tyson Jost from Buffalo. Gostisbehere had 56 points and a minus-16; Walker was plus-11 and is undrafted; the rest is bottom-six depth.

A blue line that loses Pesce and Skjei and replaces them with Gostisbehere and Walker is materially worse, and it is the one honest reason to expect fewer than 111 points. Everything else on this page argues the other way.

What is old is very old. Brent Burns is 39 and played all 82. Jordan Staal is 36. Dmitry Orlov is 33. What is young is the best of it: Seth Jarvis is 22 with 33 goals, Andrei Svechnikov 24, Jesperi Kotkaniemi 24, Jack Drury 24 and Pyotr Kochetkov 25.

What the Scout Says

A 6-5 defenceman in his twentieth season, a 6-4 centre in his eighteenth, and the most disciplined club in this book.

Brent Burns is 6-5 and 228 and has played 1,415 NHL games, and he still defends the rush with reach almost nobody gets around. Jordan Staal is 6-4 and 220 with 1,253 games and he still wins the draw that starts every hard shift.

The heavy forwards are the bottom six. William Carrier was added at 6-2 and 214 with 204 penalty minutes in 413 games. Eric Robinson is 6-2 and 220. Jesperi Kotkaniemi is 6-3 and 212 and forechecks with real force. Jordan Martinook is 6-1 and 208 and finishes every check.

The top of the roster is small and quick. Sebastian Aho is 6-0 and 189. Seth Jarvis is 5-10 and 180. Martin Necas is 6-3 and 195 and does not play through anybody.

The blue line is unusually clean. Jaccob Slavin took 8 penalty minutes in 81 games and has 86 in 665 career games — the lowest rate of any defenceman in this edition. Shayne Gostisbehere is 5-11 and 183 and Sean Walker 5-11 and 191, and neither clears a crease.

Who this names 6 of 12 forwards · 58% of their five-on-five minutes details

Not named here: William Carrier, Jack Drury, Tyson Jost, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jordan Martinook, Eric Robinson.

What the Quant Says

279 goals, 7th in the league, and 2nd at creating chances at even strength at 2.983 expected goals per 60. Both very good, and the gap between them is the whole of this club.

At five-on-five the club scored 169 goals against an expectation of 192.2 — a finishing deficit of 23.2 goals, 32nd in the league. Last in the league, two goals worse than Chicago.

Sebastian Aho scored 36 goals with 53 assists and 10 game-winners, converting at 16.67 per cent. Seth Jarvis scored 33 at 22 with 13 power-play goals and 9 game-winners, converting at 18.75. Martin Necas had 53 points, Andrei Svechnikov 52 in 59 games with 8 game-winners, and Shayne Gostisbehere 56 from the blue line before he arrived.

Twenty-seven game-winning goals between three forwards on a club that could not finish. The men are not the problem.

What the Scout Says

A club that shoots more than anybody in hockey, and mostly from too far out.

Seth Jarvis is the exception and the answer. He takes 60 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet at a median of 16 — the most net-front shot profile on this roster by a distance — and he converted 18.75 per cent for 33 goals at 22. He goes to the paint and stays there at 5-10 and 180 pounds.

Sebastian Aho shoots from a median of 26 feet with 35 per cent inside 20 and converted 16.67 per cent, and 53 assists is the larger half — he holds the puck below the goal line and waits for the seam rather than forcing it.

Everything else is from range. Martin Necas shoots from a median of 33 feet with 28 per cent from beyond 40. Andrei Svechnikov from 29. Jack Roslovic from 25. Jordan Staal takes 52 per cent from inside 20 at a median of 19 and is 36.

The blue line takes an enormous share of the volume and takes it from the blue line. Brent Burns takes 79 per cent of his attempts from beyond 40 feet, Jalen Chatfield 74, Shayne Gostisbehere 74, Jaccob Slavin 70 and Sean Walker 68. That is where 59.6 per cent of the attempts and a last-place finishing number both come from.

Who this names 6 of 6 defencemen · 100% of their five-on-five minutes details

What the Quant Says

216 goals against, 4th in the league, and 1st in even-strength expected goals against at 2.261 per 60 — the best chance suppression in hockey. Minnesota was second at 2.444.

At five-on-five the club conceded 146 goals against an expectation of 147.6. Exactly what the chances said, which after the offensive section of this page is a relief.

The chance shares on this blue line are the highest in the edition. Dmitry Orlov took 59.0 per cent of the expected goals, the 98th percentile. Jalen Chatfield took 60.4 per cent, the 99th. Jaccob Slavin took 56.6 and Brent Burns 56.3, both above the 93rd.

Jaccob Slavin played 20:56 a night, was plus-21, and took 8 penalty minutes in 81 games. Brent Burns played all 82 at 21:30 with 33 assists, at 39. Jalen Chatfield is undrafted and was plus-15.

The one shortfall is the same one. Slavin's ice went 63-49 against an expectation of 72.71-53.07 — sixteen goals of scoring missing on the ice of the club's best defenceman.

What the Scout Says

The cleanest defenceman in this book, a thirty-nine-year-old playing 21:30, and two undrafted men in the top six.

Jaccob Slavin defends the rush better than almost anybody in the league and he does it without touching people — he closes the gap early and takes the puck with his stick before contact is needed. Eight penalty minutes in 81 games and 86 in 665 for his career is the lowest rate of any defenceman in this edition, and it is the whole method rather than an accident.

Brent Burns is 6-5 and 228 and threw 33 assists at 39, and the shot from the point is still heavy. He walks the line and holds the puck until a forechecker commits. He is in his twentieth season.

Dmitry Orlov is 5-11 and 215 and clears the front of his own net by force, which on this blue line is scarce. Jalen Chatfield is undrafted, was plus-15, and took the 99th percentile of chances.

Shayne Gostisbehere arrives with 46 assists and a minus-16 — he carries the puck out of his own zone and does not defend. Sean Walker is undrafted with 313 games and scored 10 goals. Neither replaces what left.

Who this names 3 of 3 goaltenders details

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 1.6 goals better than the chances faced, 14th in the league. Exactly average, behind the best chance suppression in hockey, and it took four men to produce it.

Pyotr Kochetkov went 23-13-4 with a .9108, a 2.33 average and 4 shutouts in 42 games at 24, on a career .9098 across 69 games.

Frederik Andersen went 13-2-0 with a .9317, a 1.84 average and 3 shutouts in 16 games. Sixteen games is the problem — he has a career .9158 across 495 games and has not played sixty in a season since 2019-20.

Antti Raanta played 24 games and is off the roster. Spencer Martin went 7-9-2 with an .8893 in 19 games and carries a career .8867.

A club that suppresses chances better than anybody and gets average goaltending is leaving the easiest points on the table it has.

What the Scout Says

Four goaltenders, a .9317 in sixteen games, and no answer.

Pyotr Kochetkov is 6-3 and 196 and plays aggressively, meeting the shooter at the top of the crease. The lateral recovery is quick and it has to be, because he is out far enough that a lateral pass beats a slower man. The rebound control is decent rather than good. A .9108 with 4 shutouts in 42 games at 24, behind the best chance suppression in hockey, is a fair season and not more than that.

Frederik Andersen is 6-4 and 229 and plays deep and large, letting the frame take the net away rather than moving for it. A .9317 with 3 shutouts in 16 games is the best rate on any roster in this chapter and there were sixteen of them. He has a career .9158 across 495 games and the body is the whole question.

Spencer Martin has a career .8867 across 57 games and the rebound control is the weakness.

A club first in the league at suppressing chances got average goaltending out of four men. If Andersen plays fifty games this is a Cup contender; if he plays sixteen again it is not.

Who this names 9 men details

The data does not say who takes these minutes, so there is no denominator to hold this against — a count of names is all it can honestly be. Both columns above are searched, and a name counts on the same terms the page links it.

What the Quant Says

2nd in the league at 5.752 expected goals against per 60, behind only Florida — over 4:59 a game, the 16th-heaviest workload. Florida was second at 5.750.

This is the most complete unit in the edition. It is built on structure rather than on any one killer, and it kills by denying entries rather than by blocking shots once the puck is in.

D · Carolina Hurricanes

Undrafted, ten goals from a third pairing, and two shorthanded goals.

How they were used

2023-24 · 82 games

Measured from shift charts at five-on-five, not projected. Units are built from the strongest partnership outward and ordered by how much they were used; the percentage is the share of the first player’s five-on-five ice time spent alongside each linemate. A low number means the club never settled on a combination. Players who have gone are marked — either to another club, or off an NHL roster altogether, which covers retirement and an unsigned summer alike.