This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Brady Skjei
Carolina Hurricanes Defense
Eighteen goals against a previous career high of nine, and twelve of them came from inside forty feet.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | NYR | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0 | 17:44 |
| 2016-17 | NYR | 80 | 5 | 34 | 39 | +11 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 127 | 3.9 | 17:28 |
| 2017-18 | NYR | 82 | 4 | 21 | 25 | -27 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 153 | 2.6 | 21:02 |
| 2018-19 | NYR | 78 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -4 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 126 | 6.3 | 21:14 |
| 2019-20 | NYR/CAR | 67 | 8 | 16 | 24 | -10 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 139 | 5.8 | 20:42 |
| 2020-21 | CAR | 52 | 3 | 7 | 10 | +6 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 104 | 2.9 | 20:44 |
| 2021-22 | CAR | 82 | 9 | 30 | 39 | +22 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 4.9 | 21:09 |
| 2022-23 | CAR | 81 | 18 | 20 | 38 | +7 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 188 | 9.6 | 21:49 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 529 | 55 | 145 | 200 | +6 | 292 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1027 | 5.4 | 20:33 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
18 goals and 20 assists in 81 games — 38 points at 21:49 a night, plus-7, with 188 shots converting at 9.57 per cent.
His previous career high was nine goals. He had 55 in 529 games coming into it, a career rate of 5.36 per cent.
56 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,458 minutes, the 91st percentile. His ice went 60-58 against an expectation of 66.57-52.39 — six and a half goals short of what the chances predicted at one end and five and a half over at the other, a twelve-goal miss on a club that missed by eighteen. He personally over-converted while the ice he stood on did the opposite.
The Finesse Game
The shot chart says point shooter: a median of 50 feet, 70 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty, 8 per cent from inside twenty. The goals say something else entirely.
From beyond forty he put 128 shots on goal and scored six — 4.69 per cent, which is close to ordinary for a defenceman. From inside forty he took 58 shots and scored twelve, at 20.69 per cent. Two-thirds of his career-best goal total came from under a third of his shots, taken from places a defenceman only reaches by leaving the line.
That reframes the regression argument rather than removing it. Nothing about pinching into the slot is unrepeatable; converting a fifth of what you shoot from there is. He shoots it hard — 96.6 mph, the 86th percentile — and hard was not what produced this season. Anyone paying for eighteen goals should understand they are paying for the twelve, not the six.
The Physical Game
6-3 and 210 on the left side, 40 penalty minutes, 22 minutes a night. He is a big man who plays a positional game rather than a punishing one.
The skating is ordinary and useful: 22.3 mph at the 49th percentile, 3.08 miles a game at the 84th, 0.8 bursts a game at the 41st. Nothing there is a weapon and nothing there is a problem — but a defenceman who scored twelve goals from inside forty feet got there somehow, and the tracking has no measurement that shows him doing it.
The Intangibles
Traded out of New York in 2020 and settled into Carolina’s second pair, where the system flatters everyone and he has been better than he was on Broadway.
He turns 30 in this edition’s season with a career year behind him and a contract in front of him. The club’s problem is that the market will read the eighteen goals, and the numbers say the market should read where they came from.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- durable· was available
81 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,458 minutes
- Expected goals
- 56%
- 91st pct
- Shot attempts
- 58.6%
- 96th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 60 for, 58 against. Expected: 66.6 and 52.4.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 36 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 120 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 64 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 1458 minutes at five-on-five
- Brett Pesce90%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- CAR took 58.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.0% — 2.9 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- First pair, 1,458 minutes at five-on-five — 96th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Pesce | 55.5% | 61.9% | 59.9% |
| Jordan Martinook | 55.8% | 56.1% | 60.8% |
| Jesper Fast | 56.1% | 55.9% | 58.8% |
55.5% together, 61.9% for him apart and 59.9% for Pesce apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
283 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 33 feet. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 70% from beyond forty.