This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Dmitry Orlov
Carolina Hurricanes Defense
Five-eleven, a 101.6 mph shot at the 99th percentile, and three goals from beyond forty feet.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-12 | WSH | 60 | 3 | 16 | 19 | +1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 51 | 5.9 | 16:52 |
| 2012-13 | WSH | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 14:57 |
| 2013-14 | WSH | 54 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 5.1 | 19:36 |
| 2015-16 | WSH | 82 | 8 | 21 | 29 | +8 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 90 | 8.9 | 16:02 |
| 2016-17 | WSH | 82 | 6 | 27 | 33 | +30 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 4.8 | 19:32 |
| 2017-18 | WSH | 82 | 10 | 21 | 31 | +10 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 125 | 8.0 | 23:08 |
| 2018-19 | WSH | 82 | 3 | 26 | 29 | +3 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 101 | 3.0 | 21:38 |
| 2019-20 | WSH | 69 | 4 | 23 | 27 | +5 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 105 | 3.8 | 22:10 |
| 2020-21 | WSH | 51 | 8 | 14 | 22 | +16 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 83 | 9.6 | 19:49 |
| 2021-22 | WSH | 76 | 12 | 23 | 35 | +25 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 127 | 9.4 | 20:58 |
| 2022-23 | WSH/BOS | 66 | 7 | 29 | 36 | +12 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 124 | 5.7 | 22:33 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 709 | 64 | 209 | 273 | +114 | 291 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 991 | 6.5 | 20:15 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
7 goals and 29 assists in 66 games between Washington and Boston — 36 points at 22:33 a night, plus-12, after eleven seasons and 709 games as a Capital.
53.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,221 minutes, the 77th percentile. His ice went 48-42 against an expectation of 56.72-49.42.
He arrives in Carolina as a free agent, which is the third club in a calendar year for a man who had only ever had one.
The Finesse Game
His shot is 101.6 mph, the 99th percentile, and he took 124 attempts at a median of 43 feet with 55 per cent from beyond forty. Sixty shots on goal from out there produced three goals, at 5.00 per cent.
This book now has a small ledger of men who shoot the puck as hard as anyone alive and score almost nothing with it, and the entries keep agreeing. Radko Gudas measured 101.7 mph and scored two goals. Matt Dumba measured 101.6 and scored four. Orlov measures 101.6 and got three from distance. The variable that separates them from the forwards posting the same velocities is not the shot; it is the forty feet.
What he actually does well is the 29 assists — a puck-mover with a first pass, playing the left side of a good pair, and the offence comes from the exit rather than the shot.
The Physical Game
5-11 and 215, which is a low, heavy build rather than a small one, and he plays it: he finishes checks and he is difficult to get around at the line.
The tracking says he is not fast — 21.9 mph at the 28th percentile, 0.3 bursts a game at the 16th — and 2.98 miles a game at the 79th says he works. That is a familiar combination in this edition and it is not a criticism; it is a description of a defenceman who wins with position.
The Intangibles
Eleven years in one organisation, then a deadline trade to a Boston club that won 65 games, then free agency. He is 32 and Carolina paid for the defensive half.
The question the numbers raise is whether a 77th-percentile expected-goal share on a very good Boston team becomes a 98th-percentile one in Carolina’s system, or whether the system has been flattering the men already in it.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored
20.8% of his attempts in the slot, 92nd percentile among defencemen
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it
- hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range
3 of 85 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 3.5%, 92nd percentile among defencemen
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it
“he finishes checks and he is difficult to get around at the line”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,221 minutes
- Expected goals
- 53.4%
- 77th pct
- Shot attempts
- 53.2%
- 80th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 48 for, 42 against. Expected: 56.7 and 49.4.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 120 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2022-23 with WSH · 827 minutes at five-on-five
- Nick Jensen57%
- Trevor van Riemsdyk13%
- John Carlson11%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- BOS took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.4% — 0.1 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- 1,221 minutes at five-on-five — 85th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Jensen | 52.1% | 54.3% | 48.8% |
| Garnet Hathaway | 49.1% | 54.5% | 50.8% |
| Conor Sheary | 49.9% | 54.4% | 49.3% |
52.1% together, 54.3% for him apart and 48.8% for Jensen apart. Jensen was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Jensen than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
154 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 31 feet. 15% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 55% from beyond forty.