This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Seth Jarvis

Fifty-six per cent of his shots from inside twenty feet, and an ice that scored eleven fewer goals than it should have.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2021-22	CAR	68	17	23	40	+11	18	2	0	4	110	15.4	13:53
2022-23	CAR	82	14	25	39	+10	12	0	1	0	187	7.5	16:12
2023-24 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	150	31	48	79	+21	30	2	1	4	297	10.4	15:09

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

14 goals and 25 assists in 82 games — 39 points at 16:12 a night, plus-10, with 12 penalty minutes.

He had 40 points in 68 games as a rookie, so the raw total went up and the rate went down.

58.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,112 minutes, the 97th percentile. His ice went 45-36 against an expectation of 55.86-38.98 — nearly eleven goals short at the offensive end, and among the forwards who played a full season that is the largest shortfall on the club.

The Finesse Game

187 attempts at a median of 17 feet, 56 per cent of them from inside twenty and 15 per cent from beyond forty, converting at 7.49 per cent.

That combination is the whole Carolina problem in one player. He got to the best places on the ice more reliably than almost anyone in the league and scored at a rate you would expect from someone shooting from much further out. Seven and a half per cent from seventeen feet is a poor return, and the club’s total was eighteen goals of the same thing.

The encouraging reading is that shot location is the repeatable half and conversion is the volatile one, so a player who keeps arriving in the slot will eventually be paid for it. The discouraging reading is that he is 5-10 and 180 and the finish from those distances requires beating a goaltender who can see him. Nothing in this data separates the two, and one more season will.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 180 with 12 penalty minutes, which is a small man playing a clean game in traffic.

2.0 bursts over 20 mph a game at the 85th percentile, top speed 22.5 mph at the 62nd, 2.75 miles a game at the 64th. He is quick into space rather than fast across it, and at his size the quickness is the thing that keeps him alive in the areas he insists on occupying.

The Intangibles

Thirteenth overall in 2020, in the league at 19, and a full-time top-nine forward at 21 on a club with genuine depth.

46.8 per cent of his even-strength shifts started in the offensive zone, the 98th percentile. He is 21, he plays the hard areas, and the only thing missing is the part that arrives last.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

disciplined· stays out of the box
0.15 penalty minutes a game over 82, 6th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it
durable· was available
82 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips
“He got to the best places on the ice more reliably than almost anyone in the league”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,112 minutes

Expected goals: 58.9%; 97th pct
Shot attempts: 58.9%; 97th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 45 for, 36 against. Expected: 55.9 and 39.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

84th

Numbers

97th

The two rank him within 13 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 141 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1112 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club: CAR took 58.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 58.9% — level with the club he did it on.
The role: Third line, 1,112 minutes at five-on-five — 73rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Sebastian Aho	62.3%	50.5%	51.4%
Brent Burns	62.0%	57.0%	59.0%
Teuvo Teravainen	57.9%	59.5%	52.4%

62.3% together, 50.5% for him apart and 51.4% for Aho apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

252 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 8 feet. 56% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 15% from beyond forty.