This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Brett Pesce
Carolina Hurricanes Defense
Two goals on 114 shots from beyond forty feet, taken with an 87.9 mph shot at the 29th percentile.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | CAR | 69 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 85 | 4.7 | 18:46 |
| 2016-17 | CAR | 82 | 2 | 18 | 20 | +23 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 1.8 | 21:12 |
| 2017-18 | CAR | 65 | 3 | 16 | 19 | -6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 88 | 3.4 | 20:54 |
| 2018-19 | CAR | 73 | 7 | 22 | 29 | +35 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 98 | 7.1 | 20:29 |
| 2019-20 | CAR | 61 | 4 | 14 | 18 | +7 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 104 | 3.9 | 21:53 |
| 2020-21 | CAR | 55 | 4 | 21 | 25 | +14 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 4.5 | 22:48 |
| 2021-22 | CAR | 70 | 7 | 21 | 28 | +5 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 148 | 4.7 | 21:42 |
| 2022-23 | CAR | 82 | 5 | 25 | 30 | +11 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 144 | 3.5 | 22:01 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 557 | 36 | 149 | 185 | +82 | 207 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 865 | 4.2 | 21:11 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
5 goals and 25 assists in 82 games — 30 points at 22:01 a night, plus-11, on a club that led the NHL in five-on-five shot attempts at 60.4 per cent and in scoring chances at 58.9.
55.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,482 minutes, the 91st percentile. His ice went 65-55 against an expectation of 67.91-53.59, which is a shortfall at both ends and a small one — on this club that counted as holding steady.
He has been a Hurricane since the third round of 2013, 557 games and 185 points of him.
The Finesse Game
144 attempts at a median of 53 feet, 4 per cent of them from inside twenty and 83 per cent from beyond forty, converting at 3.47 per cent overall. His career rate is 4.16 per cent across 557 games, so this is not a bad year; it is the player.
Break it at forty feet and the picture is starker. From beyond forty he put 114 shots on goal and scored two — 1.75 per cent, against a league rate of 3.19 for defencemen. From inside forty he took 28 and scored three. He is not merely a point shooter; he is a point shooter who is below the poor rate that shot returns everywhere.
His shot is 87.9 mph, the 29th percentile — he takes the shot that most needs a hard one and does not have one. The 25 assists are the real offensive contribution, and they are a proper number for a defenceman who is not asked to carry it.
The Physical Game
6-3 and 206 with a right shot, and the tracking describes a particular kind of mover: 3.03 miles a game at the 81st percentile, and a top speed of 21.5 mph at the 13th. He never stops and he never gets going, which is the fourth or fifth time this book has met that shape in a defenceman.
43 penalty minutes across 82 games at top-pair minutes. He defends with position and stick rather than contact, and the reach does the work before anyone has to be hit.
47.8 per cent of his even-strength shifts started in the offensive zone, the 99th percentile, which is what happens when your club never gives the puck back.
The Intangibles
Eight seasons, one organisation, and a role that has not changed: the right side of a top pair, against the other club’s best, with a partner who gets the headlines.
He is 28 and the contract year is coming. Nothing in these numbers argues he is declining and nothing in them will make anyone pay him for offence.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in
82.7% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 95th percentile among defencemen
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
- durable· was available
82 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
“He defends with position and stick rather than contact, and the reach does the work before anyone has to be hit.”
“the right side of a top pair, against the other club's best, with a partner who gets the headlines”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,482 minutes
- Expected goals
- 55.9%
- 91st pct
- Shot attempts
- 58.2%
- 96th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 65 for, 55 against. Expected: 67.9 and 53.6.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 51 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 120 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 1482 minutes at five-on-five
- Brady Skjei89%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- CAR took 58.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.9% — 3.0 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- First pair, 1,482 minutes at five-on-five — 97th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Skjei | 55.5% | 59.9% | 61.9% |
| Jordan Martinook | 57.2% | 55.3% | 59.7% |
| Jesper Fast | 57.0% | 55.4% | 58.1% |
55.5% together, 59.9% for him apart and 61.9% for Skjei apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
214 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 23 feet. 4% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 83% from beyond forty.