Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

13

David Gustafsson

Winnipeg Jets Center

Forty-six games, forty-five shots, and no goals.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20WPG22101-20001425.06:09
2020-21WPG4000-1000010.05:49
2021-22WPG2000000000—2:28
2022-23WPG46066+26000450.010:06
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—74167-16001502.08:29

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

No goals and 6 assists in 46 games — 6 points — at 10:06 a night. Plus-2, 45 shots and no goals, 6 penalty minutes.

Forty-five shots and nothing. He has one goal in 74 career games.

47.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 394 minutes, the 28th percentile, with his ice at 12-12 against an expectation of 13.28-14.76.

He started 38.8 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 11th percentile: 64 attacking draws against 101 defensive ones. Hard fourth-line minutes, in ten a night.

The Finesse Game

45 shots at a median of 31 feet.

Inside twenty feet: 16 shots on goal and no goals. From twenty to forty: nine shots and none. Beyond forty: 17 shots and none.

Forty-two shots on goal across three distance bands and not one of them went in. On a season that is not a sample; on a career of 74 games and 50 shots and one goal, it starts to be one.

55 tracked attempts in 46 games, 29 of them wrist shots. 87.5 mph at the 26th percentile.

There is no offensive record here at all and there is not going to be one. What the file has instead is a defensive-zone role at twenty-three.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 196 pounds, with 6 penalty minutes in 46 games and 6 in 74 career games — one of the lowest rates of any forward in this book.

1.7 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game at the 80th percentile, at a top speed of 22.4 mph, the 57th, on 1.64 miles a game — the 2nd percentile, which is ten minutes of ice time and nothing else.

He reaches speed often for a fourth-liner and covers almost no ground, because there is almost no ground to cover in ten minutes.

He is defensively responsible and takes the defensive-zone draw, which the eleventh-percentile zone-start figure records without being able to say who wins a faceoff.

He is not physical, and six penalty minutes in a season from a checking centre is an unusually clean way to do that job.

The Intangibles

Sixtieth overall in 2018, the second round, four seasons, 74 games, 7 points, all of them here.

One goal and six assists.

He is twenty-three, a Swedish second-round pick five years past the draft with seventy-four NHL games and one goal.

The defensive work is real enough to have got him forty-six games on a playoff club, and the offensive record is as close to nothing as this book contains. A fourth-line centre who cannot score has a very narrow path, and this is what standing on it looks like.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.13 penalty minutes a game over 46, 10th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He is defensively responsible and takes the defensive-zone draw, which the eleventh-percentile zone-start figure records without being able to say who wins a faceoff.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is not physical, and six penalty minutes in a season from a checking centre is an unusually clean way to do that job.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 394 minutes

Expected goals
47.4%
34th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.7%
36th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 12 for, 12 against. Expected: 13.3 and 14.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
29th
Numbers
34th

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 46 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
63rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.72 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.64 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.5 mph
52nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 394 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
WPG took 51.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.4% — 4.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
394 minutes at five-on-five — 10th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby44.2%50.0%49.9%
Dylan DeMelo37.8%51.7%53.9%
Brenden Dillon48.7%46.7%54.2%

44.2% together, 50.0% for him apart and 49.9% for Jonsson-Fjallby apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

52 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 0 of them goals. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 35% from beyond forty.