This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | LAK | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12.5 | 11:28 |
| 2021-22 | LAK | 57 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 51 | 9.8 | 11:48 |
| 2022-23 | LAK | 66 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 5.7 | 10:06 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 130 | 9 | 20 | 29 | -15 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 112 | 8.0 | 10:55 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
3 goals and 12 assists in 66 games — 15 points — at 10:06 a night for Los Angeles. Minus-5, 53 shots at 5.7 per cent, 12 penalty minutes.
51.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 595 minutes, the 59th percentile, with his ice at 22-27 against an expectation of 23.58-22.01 — five more goals allowed than the chances called for.
He started 62.5 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 94th percentile: 183 attacking draws against 110 defensive ones. That is very soft usage for a fourth-line centre, and a 59th-percentile chance share out of it is unremarkable.
The Finesse Game
53 shots at a median of 24 feet, with 34 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty and 19 per cent from beyond forty.
Inside twenty feet: 20 shots on goal and one goal — 5.00 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty: 18 shots and two goals. Beyond forty: 14 shots and none. Fifty-two shots on goal is not a sample and none of those rates is worth reading.
76 tracked attempts in 66 games, 32 of them wrist shots and 20 snap shots — a 26.3 per cent share. 86.9 mph at the 21st percentile.
9 goals in 130 career games at 8.0 per cent. The shot is soft and the volume is small, which for a twentieth-overall pick three years into a career is the problem in one sentence.
The Physical Game
6-2 and 201 pounds, with 12 penalty minutes in 66 games and 32 in 130 career games.
2.8 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game at the 95th percentile and a top speed of 23.3 mph, the 93rd, on 1.71 miles a game at the 5th percentile, which is ten minutes of ice time.
That is one of the best pure speed profiles in this book and it belongs to a man with fifteen points. He is fast, he is fast constantly, and nothing has yet been built on it.
He forechecks at full speed and closes on a defenceman before the retrieval, which is the reason he keeps a fourth-line job.
He is not physical and does not win a puck by force at 201 pounds; the pressure is applied with feet.
The Intangibles
Twentieth overall in 2018, three seasons, 130 games, 29 points across Los Angeles and Winnipeg.
Nine goals and 20 assists, and a minus-15.
He is twenty-three, a Finnish first-round pick, and he came here as a piece in the trade for a first-line centre.
A 95th-percentile burst count and a 5 per cent conversion from the slot is a young player with one exceptional tool and no finished product. There is time — he is twenty-three — and there is not much evidence yet.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
- he lacks itraised, and he does not have it
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- sheltered· is started in the attacking end
63% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 94th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it
“He forechecks at full speed and closes on a defenceman before the retrieval, which is the reason he keeps a fourth-line job.”
“He is not physical and does not win a puck by force at 201 pounds; the pressure is applied with feet.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 595 minutes
- Expected goals
- 51.7%
- 65th pct
- Shot attempts
- 49.2%
- 46th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 22 for, 27 against. Expected: 23.6 and 22.0.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe numbers rank him 22 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 64 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 66 games
- Top speed
- 23.3 mph
- 95th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 2.80 a game
- Distance
- 1.71 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 86.9 mph
- 47th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.9
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2022-23 with LAK · 595 minutes at five-on-five
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- LAK took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.7% — 1.8 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Fourth line, 595 minutes at five-on-five — 22nd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Grundstrom | 56.6% | 46.8% | 48.0% |
| Sean Walker | 54.4% | 50.4% | 51.1% |
| Matt Roy | 53.2% | 51.0% | 55.2% |
56.6% together, 46.8% for him apart and 48.0% for Grundstrom apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
75 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 23 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.