Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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2

Dylan DeMelo

Winnipeg Jets Defense

The lowest career shooting rate of any defenceman in this book, and ninety-nine assists.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16SJS45224014200424.813:37
2016-17SJS25178+214000323.115:54
2017-18SJS6302020-134000670.014:12
2018-19OTT7741822-1320001093.719:17
2019-20OTT/WPG5901010+437000740.020:08
2020-21WPG52099+1020000440.016:58
2021-22WPG7611213+1028010781.318:30
2022-23WPG7562127+1050011936.519:34
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—4721499113+342292215392.617:39

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 21 assists in 75 games — 27 points — at 19:34 a night. Plus-10, 93 shots at 6.5 per cent, one shorthanded, 50 penalty minutes.

27 points is a career high by seven, and six goals is a career high by two, in his eighth season.

52.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 1,254 minutes, the 66th percentile, with his ice at 53-50 against an expectation of 51.33-46.50.

He started 50.1 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 46th percentile: 359 attacking draws against 357 defensive ones. Dead even, and a 66th-percentile chance share out of it — the second-best combination of those two numbers on this blue line.

The Finesse Game

93 shots at a median of 52 feet, with 71 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty and 7 per cent from inside twenty.

Beyond forty feet: 64 shots on goal and two goals — 3.13 per cent, on the league rate for defencemen of 3.17. From twenty to forty: 14 shots and three goals, 21.43 per cent. Inside twenty: 11 shots and one goal.

136 tracked attempts, 89 of them wrist shots — a 65.4 per cent share — and only 24 slap. His shot is measured at 91.7 mph, the 57th percentile.

14 goals in 472 career games at 2.6 per cent — the lowest career shooting rate of the 101 defencemen in this book with four hundred or more games.

Six goals last season is three-quarters of everything he had scored in the seven seasons before it.

The 99 career assists against 14 goals are the file: he takes the puck off the wall, he makes the first pass, and nothing else in the offensive record exists.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 194 pounds, with 50 penalty minutes in 75 games and 229 in 472 career games.

Top speed 21.5 mph at the 12th percentile, 0.1 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game — the 1st percentile — and 2.57 miles a game at the 50th.

He reached twenty miles an hour eight times in seventy-five games. That is one of the slowest tracking lines of any regular defenceman in this book, and he plays twenty minutes a night on the second pair of a playoff club.

He defends by position and by never being out of it, which is the only method available at that top speed and it works because the reads are early.

He is not physical and does not clear a crease, and the 50 penalty minutes are the fouls of a slow defenceman who has been beaten and has to reach.

The Intangibles

A hundred and seventy-ninth overall in 2011, the sixth round, eight seasons, 472 games, 113 points across San Jose, Ottawa and Winnipeg.

14 goals and 99 assists, and a plus-34.

He is thirty, and he has been the second-pair right-handed defenceman on a playoff club for four seasons without anybody outside Winnipeg noticing.

A sixth-round pick with four hundred and seventy games, a 2.6 per cent shooting rate and a positive chance share out of even starts is exactly the sort of file this book exists for. He does one thing, he does it every night, and no statistic anybody prints records it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “The 99 career assists against 14 goals are the file: he takes the puck off the wall, he makes the first pass, and nothing else in the offensive record exists.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He defends by position and by never being out of it, which is the only method available at that top speed and it works because the reads are early.”

  • fouls-when-beatena strength· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “He is not physical and does not clear a crease, and the 50 penalty minutes are the fouls of a slow defenceman who has been beaten and has to reach.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,254 minutes

Expected goals
52.5%
71st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.2%
63rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 53 for, 50 against. Expected: 51.3 and 46.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
71st

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 75 games

Top speed
21.5 mph
45th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.11 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.57 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.7 mph
48th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1254 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
WPG took 51.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.5% — 0.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,254 minutes at five-on-five — 87th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Josh Morrissey50.1%56.2%52.5%
Kyle Connor49.0%54.4%52.9%
Mark Scheifele55.6%51.1%48.3%

50.1% together, 56.2% for him apart and 52.5% for Morrissey apart. He was better away from Morrissey, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Morrissey.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

131 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 33 feet. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 75% from beyond forty.