Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

9

Alex Iafallo

Winnipeg Jets Left Wing

Undrafted, four hundred and twenty games, and eleven goals from fifty-six slot shots.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18LAK7591625+10120011297.015:06
2018-19LAK82151833-172220214810.116:50
2019-20LAK70172643+11460314212.018:56
2020-21LAK55131730-8440211811.019:53
2021-22LAK79172037+483122157.918:30
2022-23LAK59142236+142070513310.516:18
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—42085119204+480221158859.617:31

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

14 goals and 22 assists in 59 games — 36 points — at 16:18 a night for Los Angeles. Plus-14, 133 shots at 10.5 per cent, seven on the power play, five game-winners, 20 penalty minutes.

36 points is his second-best season, behind 37 in 2021-22, and it came in fifty-nine games.

53.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 750 minutes, the 78th percentile, with his ice at 32-23 against an expectation of 31.81-27.25.

He started 51.2 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 52nd percentile: 210 attacking draws against 200 defensive ones. Even, and a 78th-percentile chance share out of it, which is the whole reason a club traded for him.

The Finesse Game

133 shots at a median of 25 feet, with 33 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty and 19 per cent from beyond forty.

Inside twenty feet: 56 shots on goal and 11 goals — 19.64 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty: 42 shots and two goals, 4.76 against a league rate of 11.05. Beyond forty: 32 shots and one goal, 3.13.

Above the rate from close range and well below it from the mid-slot, which on forty-two shots is noise rather than a finding.

A career 9.6 per cent across 420 games — a low figure — against 10.5 last season.

170 tracked attempts, 82 of them wrist shots, 24 tip-ins and 10 deflected shots, and 20 slap. 88.0 mph at the 30th percentile.

85 goals and 119 assists in 420 career games. He goes to the net on the power play and gets a stick on the puck, which is where seven of his fourteen goals came from.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 201 pounds, with 20 penalty minutes in 59 games and 80 in 420 career games — about a fifth of a penalty minute a game across six seasons, which is exceptionally low.

Top speed 21.9 mph at the 32nd percentile, 0.8 bursts above twenty a game at the 43rd, 2.44 miles a game at the 39th. Below average on all three.

So the skating is ordinary and the chance share is not, which means the value is in the reads.

He is defensively responsible and can be played in any situation, which across six seasons in Los Angeles is why he was on the ice for the hardest minutes a coach had.

He is not physical and does not finish checks, and there is no forechecking in this file at all.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, six seasons, 420 games, 204 points across Los Angeles and Winnipeg.

85 goals and 119 assists, and a plus-4.

He is twenty-nine, an undrafted winger out of college who has played four hundred and twenty NHL games and has never been anything but useful.

An undrafted forward with four hundred games and a 78th-percentile chance share out of even starts is a genuinely good hockey player wearing a very ordinary point total, and he arrived here as the third piece in a trade for a first-line centre.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He is defensively responsible and can be played in any situation, which across six seasons in Los Angeles is why he was on the ice for the hardest minutes a coach had.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He goes to the net on the power play and gets a stick on the puck, which is where seven of his fourteen goals came from.”

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “An undrafted forward with four hundred games and a 78th-percentile chance share out of even starts is a genuinely good hockey player wearing a very ordinary point total, and he arrived here as the third piece in a trade for a first-line centre.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 750 minutes

Expected goals
53.9%
81st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.5%
75th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 32 for, 23 against. Expected: 31.8 and 27.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
70th
Numbers
81st

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 59 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
41st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.80 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.44 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.0 mph
55th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with LAK · 750 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
LAK took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.9% — 0.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 750 minutes at five-on-five — 34th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Phillip Danault53.2%54.2%55.3%
Blake Lizotte59.5%50.2%51.1%
Drew Doughty55.5%52.9%53.0%

53.2% together, 54.2% for him apart and 55.3% for Danault apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

167 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 25% from beyond forty.