Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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4

Neal Pionk

Winnipeg Jets Defense

Undrafted, a hundred and fifty-five career assists, and ninety shots from the point.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18NYR2811314-112000541.822:23
2018-19NYR7362026-16352011324.521:10
2019-20WPG7163945+10323011773.423:23
2020-21WPG5432932+6201001003.021:58
2021-22WPG7733134+5461011402.121:08
2022-23WPG82102333-12441021427.021:56
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—38529155184-81898057453.921:56

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

10 goals and 23 assists in 82 games — 33 points — at 21:56 a night. Minus-12, 142 shots at 7.0 per cent, one on the power play, 44 penalty minutes.

10 goals is a career high by four, and 82 games is the first complete season of his career.

49 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 35th percentile — the lowest of any defenceman on this roster who played a thousand minutes — across 1,473 minutes, with his ice at 57-65 against an expectation of 61.63-64.22. Five fewer goals scored than the chances called for.

He started 50.1 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 46th percentile: 436 attacking draws against 434 defensive ones. Dead even, so none of the 35th percentile is deployment.

The Finesse Game

142 shots at a median of 51 feet, with 66 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty and 6 per cent from inside twenty.

Beyond forty feet: 90 shots on goal and five goals — 5.56 per cent, well above the league rate for defencemen of 3.17. From twenty to forty: 26 shots and three goals, 11.54 against a league rate of 8.83. Inside twenty: 11 shots and two goals.

215 tracked attempts, 64 of them slap shots — a 29.8 per cent share — and a shot measured at 93.7 mph, the 69th percentile.

So Winnipeg’s top four contains three defencemen who all beat the positional rate from the point last season — Josh Morrissey at 6.31, Pionk at 5.56, Nate Schmidt at 5.56 — and one who scored nothing at all from there. When four men on one blue line spread that widely, the spread is the finding.

29 goals and 155 assists in 385 career games. The passing is the file, and 155 assists in 385 games from an undrafted defenceman is a genuinely high rate.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 190 pounds, with 44 penalty minutes in 82 games and 189 in 385 career games.

3.10 miles a game at the 85th percentile, at a top speed of 21.7 mph, the 20th, with 0.4 bursts above twenty a game at the 16th.

A great deal of ground covered without ever being quick — the same shape this book has found on nearly every twenty-minute defenceman in the edition, and it means edges rather than speed.

He is physical for 190 pounds and takes the penalties that come with it, and 44 minutes from a defenceman this size is a high figure.

He joins the rush and is caught behind it, which is the standing objection and the one the 35th-percentile chance share supports.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, six seasons, 385 games, 184 points across the Rangers and Winnipeg.

29 goals and 155 assists, and a minus-8.

He is twenty-eight, and he was never drafted at all before playing nearly four hundred NHL games at twenty-two minutes a night.

An undrafted defenceman with a hundred and fifty-five assists is a better career than most first-round picks get. The chance share is the honest caution: the offence is real and the shift is not always.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The passing is the file, and 155 assists in 385 games from an undrafted defenceman is a genuinely high rate.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is physical for 190 pounds and takes the penalties that come with it, and 44 minutes from a defenceman this size is a high figure.”

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “An undrafted defenceman with a hundred and fifty-five assists is a better career than most first-round picks get.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,473 minutes

Expected goals
49%
43rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.1%
46th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 57 for, 65 against. Expected: 61.6 and 64.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
83rd
Numbers
43rd

The report ranks him 40 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
53rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.37 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.10 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.7 mph
60th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1473 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
WPG took 51.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.0% — 2.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,473 minutes at five-on-five — 97th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brenden Dillon49.8%48.3%58.2%
Josh Morrissey50.2%48.2%52.1%
Mark Scheifele48.1%49.5%51.7%

49.8% together, 48.3% for him apart and 58.2% for Dillon apart. Dillon was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

195 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 41 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 74% from beyond forty.