Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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83

Conor Garland

Vancouver Canucks Right Wing

The lightest man in this chapter, and 60.1 per cent of the chances over a thousand minutes.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19ARI4713518+11240211811.012:47
2019-20ARI68221739+12040515813.914:09
2020-21ARI49122739-3263011358.917:55
2021-22VAN77193352+18361032039.416:24
2022-23VAN81172946-53120216710.215:07
2023-24VAN82202747+193510320010.014:32
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—404103138241+311601501698110.515:09

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

82 games, 20 goals and 27 assists for 47 points, 1 on the power play, 35 penalty minutes, 14:32 a night and plus-19, with 3 game-winners. He took 60.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,031 minutes — the 98th percentile, the highest share on the club and the eighth-highest of anybody in this edition who played five hundred minutes — and his ice went 55-30 against an expectation of 50.17-33.32.

Five goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and three goals of goaltending above them. Fifty-five goals for and 30 against in 1,031 minutes at fourteen and a half minutes a night is twenty-five goals to the good from a second-line assignment.

The Finesse Game

266 attempts at a median of 25 feet with 39 per cent of them from inside twenty and 16 per cent from beyond forty, 192 of those on goal, converted at 10.0 per cent against a career 10.50 across 981 shots.

138 career assists and 103 goals in 404 games. He holds the puck longer than anybody on this club and does it in the corners where 165 pounds should not survive; 266 attempts from a winger at fourteen and a half minutes a night is a man who will not give it up.

The Physical Game

He is 5-10 and 165 — the lightest man in this chapter — and took 35 penalty minutes.

160 career penalty minutes in 404 games. He is far too small to defend anything by contact and gets hit constantly because he refuses to move the puck early; the penalties are the ones a small man takes when he has already been beaten to the spot.

The Intangibles

One hundred and twenty-third overall in 2015 by Arizona, six seasons, and Vancouver is his second organisation.

A career plus-31 and 16 game-winners in 404 games. He was a fifth-round pick, he weighs 165 pounds, and he took a larger share of the chances than any other forward on a club that finished sixth in the league.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    60.1% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 49.8% for his club in the minutes he sat: +10.3, 99th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “He holds the puck longer than anybody on this club and does it in the corners where 165 pounds should not survive; 266 attempts from a winger at fourteen and a half minutes a night is a man who will not give it up.”

  • hard-to-movehe lacks it· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He is far too small to defend anything by contact and gets hit constantly because he refuses to move the puck early; the penalties are the ones a small man takes when he has already been beaten to the spot.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,031 minutes

Expected goals
60.1%
99th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.9%
92nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 55 for, 30 against. Expected: 50.2 and 33.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
90th
Numbers
99th

The two rank him within 9 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 79 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 82 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
59th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.67 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.41 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.4 mph
67th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1031 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
VAN took 52.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 60.1% — 7.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,031 minutes at five-on-five — 62nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Dakota Joshua61.3%58.4%37.4%
Teddy Blueger61.0%59.3%50.8%
Filip Hronek62.8%58.7%48.3%

61.3% together, 58.4% for him apart and 37.4% for Joshua apart. Joshua was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Joshua than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

266 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 20 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.